![\"\"](\"https:\/\/coinjournal.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-16-2026-11_30_38-AM.png\")
\n<\/picture> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\nKey takeaways<\/span><\/h3>\n\n- Cardano (ADA) traded near $0.161 on Thursday after a slight pullback, while whale wallets continued accumulating tokens.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Wallets holding 100,000 to 100 million ADA have reached their highest holdings since February 2023, while smaller investors have reduced exposure.<\/span><\/li>\n
- The upcoming van Rossem hard fork, scheduled for Saturday, could act as a catalyst for ADA\u2019s next move.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Cardano (ADA) edged lower on Thursday, trading around $0.161 after facing mild selling pressure the previous session.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nDespite the pullback, on-chain and derivatives data indicate that investor sentiment is gradually improving as large holders continue to accumulate the cryptocurrency ahead of a key network upgrade.<\/span><\/p>\nThe combination of growing whale activity, strengthening derivatives metrics, and the upcoming van Rossem hard fork has increased expectations that ADA could stage a broader recovery if it breaks key resistance levels.<\/span><\/p>\nWhales continue accumulating ADA<\/h2>\n
On-chain data from Santiment shows a clear divergence between large and small Cardano holders.<\/span><\/p>\nWallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA now collectively own more than 25.65 billion ADA, the highest level since February 2023.<\/span><\/p>\nIn contrast, wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA have reduced their holdings by roughly 0.7% over the past four months.<\/span><\/p>\nThe trend suggests institutional investors and high-net-worth holders continue accumulating Cardano while retail investors remain cautious. Historically, sustained whale accumulation has often preceded periods of stronger price performance.<\/span><\/p>\nCardano\u2019s development roadmap also received a boost this week. Intersect, the member-based organization supporting the Cardano ecosystem, confirmed on Wednesday that the van Rossem hard fork will be activated on Saturday following governance ratification earlier this week.<\/span><\/p>\nThe upgrade introduces new Plutus functionality alongside protocol enhancements designed to improve smart contract performance, developer capabilities, and overall network efficiency.<\/span><\/p>\nThe hard fork could provide a near-term catalyst by strengthening Cardano\u2019s ecosystem and increasing confidence among developers and investors.<\/span><\/p>\nFutures market activity also points to strengthening investor confidence.<\/span><\/p>\nAccording to CoinGlass, <\/span>Cardano futures Open Interest (OI)<\/span> has increased from approximately $422 million on Monday to $445 million on Thursday.<\/span><\/p>\nRising Open Interest alongside stabilizing prices generally indicates that fresh capital is entering the market rather than traders simply closing existing positions.<\/span><\/p>\nMeanwhile, ADA\u2019s funding rate has turned positive, reaching 0.0042%, suggesting traders holding long positions are once again willing to pay a premium to maintain their exposure.<\/span><\/p>\nPositive funding rates typically reflect improving market sentiment and growing expectations for higher prices.<\/span><\/p>\nCardano price forecast: ADA still faces major resistance<\/h2>\n
Despite improving fundamentals, Cardano remains technically constrained. ADA continues to trade below several major moving averages, preserving the broader bearish market structure.<\/span><\/p>\nCardano remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.179, the 100-day EMA ($0.208), and the 200-day EMA ($0.276)<\/span><\/p>\nThe token is also trading beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173, while the broader downtrend remains intact below the trendline resistance near $0.207.<\/span><\/p>\nMomentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 46, indicating neutral momentum without signaling either overbought or oversold conditions.<\/span><\/p>\nMeanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, suggesting bearish momentum is easing, although buying pressure remains too weak to confirm a sustained trend reversal.<\/span><\/p>\nIf bulls regain momentum, the next resistance levels include $0.179 (50-day EMA), $0.207\u2013$0.208\u00a0 (Trendline resistance and 100-day EMA), and $0.2135 (50% Fibonacci retracement).<\/span><\/p>\nA successful break above the $0.207\u2013$0.208 region would significantly improve Cardano\u2019s medium-term outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n![\"ADA\/USD](\"https:\/\/coinjournal.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ADAUSD_2026-07-16_11-29-14.png\")
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On the downside, traders should watch the immediate support level at $0.1500. Failure to defend this level could see ADA retest the June 25 swing low of $0.1382.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nCardano\u2019s improving fundamentals are beginning to contrast with its still-cautious technical picture. Whale accumulation, rising Open Interest, and positive funding rates suggest confidence is gradually returning, while the upcoming van Rossem hard fork provides an additional potential catalyst.<\/span><\/p>\n
Cardano (ADA) edged lower on Thursday, trading around $0.161 after facing mild selling pressure the previous session.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Despite the pullback, on-chain and derivatives data indicate that investor sentiment is gradually improving as large holders continue to accumulate the cryptocurrency ahead of a key network upgrade.<\/span><\/p>\n The combination of growing whale activity, strengthening derivatives metrics, and the upcoming van Rossem hard fork has increased expectations that ADA could stage a broader recovery if it breaks key resistance levels.<\/span><\/p>\n On-chain data from Santiment shows a clear divergence between large and small Cardano holders.<\/span><\/p>\n Wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA now collectively own more than 25.65 billion ADA, the highest level since February 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n In contrast, wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA have reduced their holdings by roughly 0.7% over the past four months.<\/span><\/p>\n The trend suggests institutional investors and high-net-worth holders continue accumulating Cardano while retail investors remain cautious. Historically, sustained whale accumulation has often preceded periods of stronger price performance.<\/span><\/p>\n Cardano\u2019s development roadmap also received a boost this week. Intersect, the member-based organization supporting the Cardano ecosystem, confirmed on Wednesday that the van Rossem hard fork will be activated on Saturday following governance ratification earlier this week.<\/span><\/p>\n The upgrade introduces new Plutus functionality alongside protocol enhancements designed to improve smart contract performance, developer capabilities, and overall network efficiency.<\/span><\/p>\n The hard fork could provide a near-term catalyst by strengthening Cardano\u2019s ecosystem and increasing confidence among developers and investors.<\/span><\/p>\n Futures market activity also points to strengthening investor confidence.<\/span><\/p>\n According to CoinGlass, <\/span>Cardano futures Open Interest (OI)<\/span> has increased from approximately $422 million on Monday to $445 million on Thursday.<\/span><\/p>\n Rising Open Interest alongside stabilizing prices generally indicates that fresh capital is entering the market rather than traders simply closing existing positions.<\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, ADA\u2019s funding rate has turned positive, reaching 0.0042%, suggesting traders holding long positions are once again willing to pay a premium to maintain their exposure.<\/span><\/p>\n Positive funding rates typically reflect improving market sentiment and growing expectations for higher prices.<\/span><\/p>\n Despite improving fundamentals, Cardano remains technically constrained. ADA continues to trade below several major moving averages, preserving the broader bearish market structure.<\/span><\/p>\n Cardano remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.179, the 100-day EMA ($0.208), and the 200-day EMA ($0.276)<\/span><\/p>\n The token is also trading beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173, while the broader downtrend remains intact below the trendline resistance near $0.207.<\/span><\/p>\n Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 46, indicating neutral momentum without signaling either overbought or oversold conditions.<\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, suggesting bearish momentum is easing, although buying pressure remains too weak to confirm a sustained trend reversal.<\/span><\/p>\n If bulls regain momentum, the next resistance levels include $0.179 (50-day EMA), $0.207\u2013$0.208\u00a0 (Trendline resistance and 100-day EMA), and $0.2135 (50% Fibonacci retracement).<\/span><\/p>\n A successful break above the $0.207\u2013$0.208 region would significantly improve Cardano\u2019s medium-term outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n On the downside, traders should watch the immediate support level at $0.1500. Failure to defend this level could see ADA retest the June 25 swing low of $0.1382.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Cardano\u2019s improving fundamentals are beginning to contrast with its still-cautious technical picture. Whale accumulation, rising Open Interest, and positive funding rates suggest confidence is gradually returning, while the upcoming van Rossem hard fork provides an additional potential catalyst.<\/span><\/p>\nWhales continue accumulating ADA<\/h2>\n
Cardano price forecast: ADA still faces major resistance<\/h2>\n
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