{"id":11980,"date":"2026-08-17T08:06:19","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T08:06:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=11980"},"modified":"2026-08-17T08:06:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T08:06:19","slug":"bitcoin-at-1-million-by-2030-the-numbers-dont-add-up-analyst-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=11980","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin at $1 Million by 2030? The Numbers Don’t Add Up, Analyst Says"},"content":{"rendered":"

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  • Markus Thielen estimated that roughly US$15 trillion (AU$21.15 trillion) in fresh capital would be required to lift Bitcoin to US$1 million (AU$1.41 million) a coin by 2030.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • He described that sum as about a quarter of the value of the US stock market, and the target as \u201cmathematically impossible\u201d.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

    Bitcoin reaching US$1 million (AU$1.41 million) a coin by 2030 would take roughly US$15 trillion (AU$21.15 trillion) in new capital, a sum 10x Research founder Markus Thielen called \u201cmathematically impossible\u201d in remarks published on 15 August.<\/p>\n

    In an interview with Cointelegraph, Thielen put the required inflow at about a quarter of the value of the entire US stock market, arriving over four years. \u201cIt\u2019s 15x, I think, from here,\u201d he said of the move to seven figures.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    \n
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    It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher, and that\u2019s why we are not as bullish as those arguments which we think are totally mathematically unrealistic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n Markus Thielen, 10x Research founder <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

    Bitcoin traded at US$62,773 (AU$88,510) on 17 August with a market capitalisation of about US$1.26 trillion (AU$1.78 trillion), according to CoinGecko. Its record remains US$126,080 (AU$177,773), set on 6 October 2025. About 20.07 million of the 21 million coins that will ever exist are already in circulation.<\/p>\n

    Related: Bitcoin Stalls at $65K as Inflation Data Puts the Next Move in Focus<\/strong><\/p>\n

    A Six-Figure Bar Instead<\/h2>\n

    \u201cIf we go back to, let\u2019s say, $100K, that would already be, I think, a big, big achievement,\u201d Thielen said.<\/p>\n

    Buyers hesitate at the per-coin price, he said, asking themselves \u201cshould I really work a whole year for just one Bitcoin?\u201d He said satoshis \u201cdoesn\u2019t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin\u201d.<\/p>\n

    Thielen founded 10x Research in Singapore in November 2023, after running quantitative and derivatives strategy at Morgan Stanley in Asia and macro portfolios at JP Morgan\u2019s chief investment office and Millennium Capital Partners.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    The firm sells research to hedge funds, asset managers and trading desks, and its site credits him with a July 2023 call for a US$125,000 (AU$176,250) cycle top. Bitcoin cleared that level in October 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    In March 2025, with traders debating whether to buy the dip, he said a structural decline in the market indicated a weakening foundation and made it a time for caution.<\/p>\n

    Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong put the same target on the record on 24 September 2025. \u201cI think Bitcoin could reach $1M by ~2030 based on current conditions and progress,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThink long-term.\u201d<\/p>\n

    VanEck\u2019s Matthew Sigel went further in May, calling US$1 million (AU$1.41 million) within five years the firm\u2019s base case. Bitcoin traded near US$81,000 (AU$114,210) at the time.<\/p>\n

    Read more: Hyperion DeFi Triples Profits to US$31M, Defies DAT Sector Slump<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

    Bitcoin,Market Analysis#Bitcoin #Million #Numbers #Dont #Add #Analyst1786953979<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Markus Thielen estimated that roughly US$15 trillion (AU$21.15 trillion) in fresh capital would be required to lift Bitcoin to US$1 million (AU$1.41 million) a coin by 2030.\u00a0 He described that sum as about a quarter of the value of the US stock market, and the target as \u201cmathematically impossible\u201d. Bitcoin reaching US$1 million (AU$1.41 million)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[2150,460,91,2655,406,2321],"class_list":["post-11980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin","tag-add","tag-analyst","tag-bitcoin","tag-dont","tag-million","tag-numbers"],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin at $1 Million by 2030? 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