{"id":12975,"date":"2026-09-08T23:00:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T23:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=12975"},"modified":"2026-09-08T23:00:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T23:00:24","slug":"why-bitcoin-bulls-shouldnt-mistake-a-shrinking-dollar-reserve-share-for-central-bank-buying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=12975","title":{"rendered":"Why Bitcoin bulls shouldn’t mistake a shrinking dollar reserve share for central bank buying"},"content":{"rendered":"

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A Sept. 2, 2026 analysis by New York Fed researchers shows how a few large reserve portfolios can lower the global dollar share without a broad retreat from dollars. For investors assessing future sovereign demand for Bitcoin, the distinction is between a changing average and an investment decision.<\/p>\n

Linda S. Goldberg, Oliver Hannaoui and Sneha Parthasarathy report that the dollar share of global official foreign-exchange reserves fell from 64% at year-end 2015 to 56% at year-end 2025, using IMF COFER data.<\/p>\n

Their country-level evidence points to concentrated decisions and changes in reserve sizes.<\/p>\n

Countries can change the currency mix of their portfolios, the \u201cpreferences\u201d channel. Alternatively, their total reserves can grow or shrink, changing their weight in the global average.<\/p>\n

When a country with a below-average dollar allocation accumulates reserves, it can pull down the worldwide dollar share without cutting its own allocation. Switzerland did that between 2015 and 2019: its reserve growth pushed the aggregate share down even as its own dollar allocation rose.<\/p>\n

For that period, 76 countries had complete endpoint data within a 79-country exercise. Their preferences and reserve-size contributions declined by 1.2 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively.<\/p>\n

For 2019-2023, the 62 countries with complete data contributed a positive 0.3 percentage point through preferences and a negative 0.5 percentage point through reserve-size changes.<\/p>\n

China, Russia, Mexico and Morocco lacked 2023 dollar-allocation data. Under assumptions matching the observed 2.3-percentage-point global decline, the researchers inferred a combined negative 2.0-percentage-point preferences contribution for that group.<\/p>\n

\"2019\u20132023\"2019\u20132023
Infographic shows 2023 dollar-reserve data missing four countries and explains that reserve-share statistics do not establish sovereign Bitcoin purchases.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A Bitcoin allocation needs its own evidence<\/h2>\n

The underlying Staff Report 1087, issued in March 2024 and revised in February 2026, separates reserves needed for liquidity from an investment portion above those needs. Trade payments, foreign-currency debt, and currency stabilization sustain the need for liquid reserves.<\/p>\n