{"id":13158,"date":"2026-09-12T18:33:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-12T18:33:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13158"},"modified":"2026-09-12T18:33:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-12T18:33:24","slug":"bitcoin-holds-gain-as-september-fed-hike-odds-reach-85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13158","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin holds gain as September Fed hike odds reach 85%"},"content":{"rendered":"

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August\u2019s inflation report left the Federal Reserve with a mixed signal: gasoline drove much of the headline increase, but monthly core inflation accelerated. That combination kept Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s conditional case for a rate hike in play even as Bitcoin held its daily gain.<\/p>\n

CryptoSlate’s live Bitcoin market data had BTC at $78,683, up 2.08% over 24 hours, when trading closed in the US for the week. In contrast, Reuters reported that futures had moved to about an 85% probability of a quarter-point increase at the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting, from about 70% before the inflation report. CME says its FedWatch probabilities are derived from 30-Day Fed Funds futures.<\/p>\n

The policy tension lay inside the inflation report: annual core inflation eased, while its latest monthly pace picked up.<\/p>\n

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Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n

Bitcoin holds near $78K as markets confront the macro shocks they may have underpriced this week<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n

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CPI composition cut both ways<\/h2>\n

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index increased 0.4% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 0.1% rise in July. The unadjusted 12-month rate stayed at 3.4%.<\/p>\n

Gasoline supplied the clearest reason to look beneath the headline. Its index rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the monthly all-items increase, while the broader energy index gained 2.1%.<\/p>\n

That composition could support a limited relief case for Bitcoin. An outsized contribution from a volatile component does not carry the same policy signal as a similarly broad increase across the basket.<\/p>\n

The report did not, however, deliver an energy-only inflation story. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in August after a 0.2% increase in July. Its annual rate eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, creating the central split: the longer-run measure improved while the latest monthly pace accelerated.<\/p>\n

Other parts of the basket showed pressure too. Shelter rose 0.3% in August, and services excluding energy services were up 3.0% over 12 months. Gasoline explained a large share of the headline move, but not the entire report.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had made August inflation central to his next decision. In a September 3 speech, Waller said continued progress toward the Fed’s 2% goal would incline him to support holding the policy rate steady. He also said a hot report, or evidence that progress had reversed, could lead him to consider a hike at the September 15-16 meeting.<\/p>\n