{"id":13325,"date":"2026-09-16T13:02:26","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T13:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325"},"modified":"2026-09-16T13:02:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T13:02:26","slug":"bitcoin-absorbs-initial-pre-fed-sell-off-leaving-70k-as-a-critical-test-for-warshs-fed-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin absorbs initial pre-Fed sell-off, leaving $70K as a critical test for Warsh\u2019s Fed decision"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bitcoin-fed-pressure-zone.webp\" \/><\/p>\n<div data-cs-editorial-quote-scope=\"\" data-cs-image-viewer-scope=\"\" data-single-article-content=\"\">\n<p>Bitcoin fell to an intraday low below $75,000 on Sept. 15, extending a selloff already underway ahead of the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act.<\/p>\n<p>The Senate failed 49-50 to invoke cloture on a motion to proceed to the bill, short of the 60 votes required, leading Bitcoin to its intraday low.<\/p>\n<p>Coinbase fell about 10%, and Circle lost more than 11%, with the larger losses hitting crypto businesses directly exposed to US regulation.<\/p>\n<p>On the macro side, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.041%, its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude traded above $105.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket showed odds for CLARITY passage falling from 31% to 19% before the vote, and Bitcoin had already slipped below $77,000 during that repricing.<\/p>\n<p>The final vote landed in a market that had already priced in a much higher probability of failure. The decline combined political disappointment with 5% Treasury yields, $100-plus oil, and tighter rate expectations.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Shock<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">Article figure<\/th>\n<th>Why it mattered for Bitcoin<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>CLARITY Act vote failed<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">49-50, short of 60-vote cloture threshold<\/td>\n<td>Removed near-term regulatory upside<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bitcoin price action<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Intraday low below $75,000<\/td>\n<td>Broke below the prior $76,300-$76,600 support area<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10-year Treasury yield<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">5.041%<\/td>\n<td>Tightened financial conditions for risk assets<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Brent crude<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Above $105<\/td>\n<td>Added inflation pressure before the Fed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>CLARITY odds<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Fell from 31% to 19% pre-vote<\/td>\n<td>Supports the idea failure risk was already being repriced<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Bitcoin now reaches the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting after losing the $76,300-$76,600 area, a key level for its price action.<\/p>\n<p>CryptoQuant places Bitcoin&#8217;s 200-day moving average around $70,000. From $75,900, a move to $70,000 would mean another decline of about 7.8%. The deeper $62,000-$65,000 zone holds another layer of market structure because CryptoQuant says long-term holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC there this year.<\/p>\n<h2>The bull case keeps $70,000 intact<\/h2>\n<p>The bull case begins with a Fed decision close to current market expectations. A Reuters poll found 85% of economists expect a 25-basis-point increase to 3.75%-4.00%.<\/p>\n<p>That puts more weight on Kevin Warsh&#8217;s description of the path beyond Sept. 16 and on the new Summary of Economic Projections. A restrained message would leave Bitcoin room to stabilize between roughly $72,000 and $76,000.<\/p>\n<p>A move to $72,000 would extend the Sept. 15 decline by about 5.1% from $75,900, yet price would still sit above the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th align=\"right\">BTC level<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">Move from $75,900<\/th>\n<th>Market meaning<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"right\">$76,000<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Roughly flat<\/td>\n<td>Reclaim would stabilize the lost support area<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"right\">$72,000<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-5.1%<\/td>\n<td>Painful extension, but still above the 200-day moving average<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"right\">$70,000<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-7.8%<\/td>\n<td>Key test of the 200-day moving average<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"right\">$65,000<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-14.4%<\/td>\n<td>Re-enters deeper long-term-holder accumulation zone<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"right\">$62,000<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-18.3%<\/td>\n<td>Puts the August rebound under serious pressure<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>A reclaim of $76,000 would put the $77,100-$80,200 area back in view. CryptoQuant says long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC in that region during 30 days this year. Long-term-holder selling makes the area a difficult supply zone for any rebound.<\/p>\n<aside id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter\" data-inline-newsletter=\"\" data-newsletter-placement=\"article-midpoint\" data-newsletter-pending-label=\"Joining\u2026\" data-newsletter-pending-status=\"Joining The Catalyst\u2026\" data-newsletter-email-required-message=\"Before sending, please provide your email address.\" aria-labelledby=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-title\" aria-describedby=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-copy\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__inner\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__content\"> <span class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__eyebrow\"> <i class=\"fa-regular fa-envelope\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> The Catalyst <\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-title\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__title\">What\u2019s moving crypto. Why it matters.<\/h2>\n<p id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-copy\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__copy\">Get CryptoSlate\u2019s essential stories and what to watch next.<\/p>\n<p>  <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" fill=\"currentColor\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"> <path d=\"M15 3.604H1v1.891h14v-1.89ZM1 7.208V16l7-3.926L15 16V7.208zM15 0H1v1.89h14z\"\/> <\/svg> <span>Published on Substack<\/span> <\/div>\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__form-shell\">\n<p id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-privacy\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__privacy\">Seven days a week. Unsubscribe anytime.<\/p>\n<p> <i class=\"fa-regular fa-circle-xmark\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> <span>Whoops, looks like there was a problem. Please try again.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success\" role=\"status\" aria-live=\"polite\" aria-atomic=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\"> <span class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<div>\n<h3 class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-title\">Check your inbox.<\/h3>\n<p class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-copy\">Your signup request was sent. If confirmation is required, follow the email from Substack.<\/p>\n<p class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-hint\">Look in spam or promotions if you don\u2019t see it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Bitcoin\u2019s $80,000 ceiling looks fragile after stocks shrugged off near-5% Treasury yields<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\"> <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"\/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<p>Tuesday&#8217;s cross-market split also fits this path. Bitcoin lost about 4%, Coinbase fell about 10%, and Circle dropped more than 11%. The heavier losses landed on US crypto businesses with clearer exposure to stalled federal legislation.<\/p>\n<p>A Fed message close to current expectations would leave Bitcoin above $70,000, with much of this week&#8217;s political and macro damage already priced in. The correction would remain severe, yet the deeper structure of the August rebound would still sit below the market.<\/p>\n<h2>The bear case for Bitcoin begins below $70,000<\/h2>\n<p>The bear case starts if Warsh and the Fed&#8217;s projections push markets toward a higher rate path than current pricing implies.<\/p>\n<p>More economists now expect at least one additional increase beyond September, and Morgan Stanley expects another quarter-point move in December.<\/p>\n<p>A more aggressive path would add another macro hit to a market already carrying 5% Treasury yields and $100-plus oil. Bitcoin would then approach $70,000 with the 200-day moving average directly in play.<\/p>\n<p>A sustained move below that level would place a widely watched long-term reference above spot price.<\/p>\n<p>The deeper test sits between $62,000 and $65,000. Bitcoin would need to fall about 14% from $75,900 to reach $65,000 and about 18% to reach $62,000. CryptoQuant says long-term holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC in that band this year.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Scenario<\/th>\n<th>Fed \/ Warsh signal<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">BTC zone to watch<\/th>\n<th>Read-through<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Bull case<\/td>\n<td>25-bp hike, restrained guidance, no major hawkish SEP shock<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">$72,000-$76,000<\/td>\n<td>Correction remains severe but contained<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stabilization case<\/td>\n<td>Bitcoin reclaims lost support<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Above $76,000<\/td>\n<td>$77,100-$80,200 supply zone comes back into view<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bear case<\/td>\n<td>Higher rate path signaled beyond September<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Around $70,000<\/td>\n<td>200-day moving average becomes the key stress test<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Deep bear case<\/td>\n<td>Hawkish Fed plus renewed yield\/oil pressure<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">$62,000-$65,000<\/td>\n<td>August rebound faces a much harder test<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>A return to that zone would erase much more of the rebound from the August lows. Bitcoin would then trade near the same area that absorbed long-term-holder demand earlier this year. The recovery would depend on whether those buyers defend the region again.<\/p>\n<p>Sept. 15 left Bitcoin bruised but still well above its deeper technical floor, and Sept. 16 brings a cleaner test of how much of the Fed&#8217;s path the market has already absorbed.<\/p>\n<p>A restrained outcome keeps $70,000 intact and preserves the August rebound. A more aggressive path that pushes Bitcoin through $70,000 would bring $62,000-$65,000 back into view and place that rebound under a much harder test.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Analysis,Featured,Macro,Market#Bitcoin #absorbs #initial #preFed #selloff #leaving #70K #critical #test #Warshs #Fed #decision1789563746<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin fell to an intraday low below $75,000 on Sept. 15, extending a selloff already underway ahead of the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act. The Senate failed 49-50 to invoke cloture on a motion to proceed to the bill, short of the 60 votes required, leading Bitcoin to its intraday low. Coinbase fell about<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13326,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[2971,6969,91,158,1890,683,5727,531,6970,958,679,2033],"class_list":["post-13325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ethereum","tag-70k","tag-absorbs","tag-bitcoin","tag-critical","tag-decision","tag-fed","tag-initial","tag-leaving","tag-prefed","tag-selloff","tag-test","tag-warshs"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.6 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin absorbs initial pre-Fed sell-off, leaving $70K as a critical test for Warsh\u2019s Fed decision - Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s next major test is whether a hawkish Fed can push BTC through the $70,000 support zone and materially damage the August recovery.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin absorbs initial pre-Fed sell-off, leaving $70K as a critical test for Warsh\u2019s Fed decision\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s next major test is whether a hawkish Fed can push BTC through the $70,000 support zone and materially damage the August recovery.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T13:02:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bitcoin-fed-pressure-zone.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\u884c\u653f\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\u884c\u653f\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325\",\"name\":\"Bitcoin absorbs initial pre-Fed sell-off, leaving $70K as a critical test for Warsh\u2019s Fed decision - Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bitcoin-fed-pressure-zone.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-16T13:02:26+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/#\/schema\/person\/822778c5844e0d16d43dce6630f4f1bf\"},\"description\":\"Bitcoin\u2019s next major test is whether a hawkish Fed can push BTC through the $70,000 support zone and materially damage the August recovery.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bitcoin-fed-pressure-zone.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bitcoin-fed-pressure-zone.webp\",\"width\":1280,\"height\":720},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13325#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Bitcoin absorbs initial pre-Fed sell-off, leaving $70K as a critical test for Warsh\u2019s Fed decision\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/\",\"name\":\"Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\",\"description\":\"Latest Crypto &amp; 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