{"id":13477,"date":"2026-09-20T06:30:46","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T06:30:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13477"},"modified":"2026-09-20T06:30:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T06:30:46","slug":"bitcoin-hodl-waves-show-aging-supply-not-proof-of-buying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13477","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin HODL waves show aging supply, not proof of buying"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div data-cs-editorial-figure-scope=\"\" data-cs-editorial-quote-scope=\"\" data-cs-image-viewer-scope=\"\" data-single-article-content=\"\">\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s share of supply last moved at least one year ago reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up 0.98 percentage points from 62.32% on Aug. 18, according to Maketo\u2019s HODL-wave data.<\/p>\n<p>HODL waves group Bitcoin\u2019s unspent transaction outputs into age bands based on their last on-chain movement. The rising one-year share therefore shows that more supply now sits in older bands. Current-month buying and deliberate withdrawal from the market require separate evidence.<\/p>\n<p>The underlying bands point to a specific mechanism. Coins that last moved roughly a year ago can enter the one-to-two-year bracket simply by remaining still long enough to cross the boundary.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Over 61% of BTC hasn\u2019t moved in a year: What it means for Bitcoin price<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\"> <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"\/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<h2>What Bitcoin HODL waves measure<\/h2>\n<p>The one-to-two-year band increased to 14.57% of supply from 13.52% between Aug. 18 and Sept. 18, a gain of 1.05 percentage points. That was the largest positive change among the cohorts already older than one year.<\/p>\n<p>Over the same period, the six-to-twelve-month band fell to 17.53% from 19.10%. Glassnode\u2019s Sept. 18 snapshot showed the same latest values for both bands.<\/p>\n<p>The paired moves are consistent with coins crossing the one-year boundary. Each band is a net share after coins age into it, age out of it or move on-chain and reset to the youngest cohort, leaving the identity and gross flow of the underlying units unresolved.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_564226\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-564226\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-564226 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/76c2d623-a5c8-4974-bd47-ab3624c9e342.jpeg\" alt=\"Infographic showing Bitcoin\u2019s one-year HODL share rising from 62.32% to 63.3% as the six-to-twelve-month band shrank and the one-to-two-year band grew.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/76c2d623-a5c8-4974-bd47-ab3624c9e342.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/76c2d623-a5c8-4974-bd47-ab3624c9e342-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/76c2d623-a5c8-4974-bd47-ab3624c9e342-768x512.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload wp-image-564226 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/76c2d623-a5c8-4974-bd47-ab3624c9e342.jpeg\" alt=\"Infographic showing Bitcoin\u2019s one-year HODL share rising from 62.32% to 63.3% as the six-to-twelve-month band shrank and the one-to-two-year band grew.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/76c2d623-a5c8-4974-bd47-ab3624c9e342.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/76c2d623-a5c8-4974-bd47-ab3624c9e342-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/76c2d623-a5c8-4974-bd47-ab3624c9e342-768x512.jpeg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-564226\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Infographic showing Bitcoin\u2019s one-year HODL share rising from 62.32% to 63.3% as the six-to-twelve-month band shrank and the one-to-two-year band grew.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Recent movement also eased. Coins last moved within one month accounted for 7.03% of supply on Sept. 18, down 0.27 percentage points from 7.30% a month earlier.<\/p>\n<aside id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter\" data-inline-newsletter=\"\" data-newsletter-placement=\"article-midpoint\" data-newsletter-pending-label=\"Joining\u2026\" data-newsletter-pending-status=\"Joining The Catalyst\u2026\" data-newsletter-email-required-message=\"Before sending, please provide your email address.\" aria-labelledby=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-title\" aria-describedby=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-copy\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__inner\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__content\"> <span class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__eyebrow\"> <i class=\"fa-regular fa-envelope\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> The Catalyst <\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-title\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__title\">What\u2019s moving crypto. Why it matters.<\/h2>\n<p id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-copy\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__copy\">Get CryptoSlate\u2019s essential stories and what to watch next.<\/p>\n<p>  <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" fill=\"currentColor\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"> <path d=\"M15 3.604H1v1.891h14v-1.89ZM1 7.208V16l7-3.926L15 16V7.208zM15 0H1v1.89h14z\"\/> <\/svg> <span>Published on Substack<\/span> <\/div>\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__form-shell\">\n<p id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-privacy\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__privacy\">Seven days a week. Unsubscribe anytime.<\/p>\n<p> <i class=\"fa-regular fa-circle-xmark\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> <span>Whoops, looks like there was a problem. Please try again.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success\" role=\"status\" aria-live=\"polite\" aria-atomic=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\"> <span class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<div>\n<h3 class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-title\">Check your inbox.<\/h3>\n<p class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-copy\">Your signup request was sent. If confirmation is required, follow the email from Substack.<\/p>\n<p class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-hint\">Look in spam or promotions if you don\u2019t see it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Bitcoin\u2019s old coins have gone quiet and $69,000 could reveal whether the new holders crack<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\"> <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"\/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<p>Under Glassnode\u2019s methodology, an unmoved output advances into older bands as it crosses each age threshold. Movement resets the clock.<\/p>\n<p>Last-movement age leaves beneficial ownership and intent unresolved. A transfer between wallets controlled by the same person or custodian can make an output look young even when ownership has not changed. Lost coins can remain in the oldest bands without representing a deliberate decision to hold.<\/p>\n<p>Coinbase provided a practical example in November 2025 when it warned that an internal wallet migration would create large on-chain volumes unrelated to market conditions. That episode illustrates attribution uncertainty and is not offered as the cause of the current shift.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Coinbase\u2019s $70B Bitcoin move made it look like investors were selling \u2014 but no one actually did<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\"> <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"\/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<p>The Sept. 18 readings support a limited conclusion: Bitcoin\u2019s on-chain age distribution grew older while the share moved within a month declined. Available-for-sale supply and liquid-supply tightening remain unmeasured.<\/p>\n<p>Identifying a fresh-accumulation thesis needs corroboration from entity-adjusted balance changes, exchange flows, and spending behavior. Until those measures align, the rising one-year wave is an aging signal rather than proof of new demand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Analysis,Featured,Bitcoin,BTC,CoinbaseBitcoin,BTC,Coinbase#Bitcoin #HODL #waves #show #aging #supply #proof #buying1789885846<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin\u2019s share of supply last moved at least one year ago reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up 0.98 percentage points from 62.32% on Aug. 18, according to Maketo\u2019s HODL-wave data. HODL waves group Bitcoin\u2019s unspent transaction outputs into age bands based on their last on-chain movement. The rising one-year share therefore shows that more supply<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13478,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[7024,91,285,501,84,2548,194,368,505,2515],"class_list":["post-13477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ethereum","tag-aging","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-buying","tag-coinbase","tag-hodl","tag-proof","tag-show","tag-supply","tag-waves"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.6 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin HODL waves show aging supply, not proof of buying - Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin HODL waves put the one-year supply share at 63.3%. 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