{"id":13890,"date":"2026-09-30T08:31:46","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T08:31:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890"},"modified":"2026-09-30T08:31:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T08:31:46","slug":"bitcoin-could-put-the-average-etf-buyer-back-in-losses-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin could put the average ETF buyer back in losses this week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div data-cs-editorial-figure-scope=\"\" data-cs-editorial-quote-scope=\"\" data-cs-image-viewer-scope=\"\" data-single-article-content=\"\">\n<p>Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Sept. 29 before rebounding above $83,000, close to a price that could change the estimated profitability of the average Bitcoin ETF holder when Wednesday\u2019s US inflation data arrive.<\/p>\n<p>A decline of about 2.2% from mid-$83,000 would reach $81,722, a target that Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart estimated on Sept. 21 as the average ETF holder\u2019s cost basis, saying the recent rally had put that holder back in profit.<\/p>\n<p>Individual investors have different purchase prices, and a move through $81,722 would make their trading decisions worth watching. A Sept. 9 Glassnode report placed a differently measured ETF-complex break-even near $86,000.<\/p>\n<p>Seyffart\u2019s later estimate gives Wednesday\u2019s price action a specific threshold, with its scope and date attached.<\/p>\n<h2>Levels around the ETF estimate<\/h2>\n<p>The immediate reference above Tuesday\u2019s captured price is an $84,000-$85,000 zone, as Glassnode\u2019s Sept. 23 report called it the largest cluster of long-term-holder supply. Bitcoin traded above that zone when the report was published, while Tuesday\u2019s quoted price was below it.<\/p>\n<p>Analyst Axel Adler Jr. calculated Bitcoin\u2019s 365-day moving average at $80,500 on Sept. 22, so a fall through $81,722 followed by a test of $80,500 would carry price below two separate reference points.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_567316\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-567316\" style=\"width: 720px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"shoggoth-infographic shoggoth-infographic-portrait wp-image-567316\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin price map ahead of Sept. 30 data: Sept. 29 BTC quote $83,579; Glassnode long-term-holder supply $84,000 to $85,000; Seyffart estimated ETF holder cost $81,722; Adler 365-day moving average $80,500; ADP at 8:15 a.m. ET and BEA PCE and GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET.\" width=\"720\" height=\"900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8.png 1122w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8-240x300.png 240w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8-819x1024.png 819w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8-768x960.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload shoggoth-infographic shoggoth-infographic-portrait wp-image-567316\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin price map ahead of Sept. 30 data: Sept. 29 BTC quote $83,579; Glassnode long-term-holder supply $84,000 to $85,000; Seyffart estimated ETF holder cost $81,722; Adler 365-day moving average $80,500; ADP at 8:15 a.m. ET and BEA PCE and GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET.\" width=\"720\" height=\"900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8.png 1122w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8-240x300.png 240w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8-819x1024.png 819w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/exec-f1cd256e-6276-47b9-8a0f-49c3f057ebf8-768x960.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-567316\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin traded at $83,579 ahead of PCE, below the $84,000-$85,000 holder zone and 2.2% above estimated ETF cost.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>ADP schedules its September private employment report for 8:15 a.m. ET; the Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release August personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. ET, and BEA also schedules the third estimate of second-quarter GDP for that time.<\/p>\n<aside id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter\" data-inline-newsletter=\"\" data-newsletter-placement=\"article-midpoint\" data-newsletter-pending-label=\"Joining\u2026\" data-newsletter-pending-status=\"Joining The Catalyst\u2026\" data-newsletter-email-required-message=\"Before sending, please provide your email address.\" aria-labelledby=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-title\" aria-describedby=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-copy\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__inner\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__content\"> <span class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__eyebrow\"> <i class=\"fa-regular fa-envelope\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> The Catalyst <\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-title\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__title\">What\u2019s moving crypto. Why it matters.<\/h2>\n<p id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-copy\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__copy\">Get CryptoSlate\u2019s essential stories and what to watch next.<\/p>\n<p>  <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" fill=\"currentColor\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"> <path d=\"M15 3.604H1v1.891h14v-1.89ZM1 7.208V16l7-3.926L15 16V7.208zM15 0H1v1.89h14z\"\/> <\/svg> <span>Published on Substack<\/span> <\/div>\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__form-shell\">\n<p id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-privacy\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__privacy\">Seven days a week. Unsubscribe anytime.<\/p>\n<p> <i class=\"fa-regular fa-circle-xmark\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> <span>Whoops, looks like there was a problem. Please try again.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success\" role=\"status\" aria-live=\"polite\" aria-atomic=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\"> <span class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<div>\n<h3 class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-title\">Check your inbox.<\/h3>\n<p class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-copy\">Your signup request was sent. If confirmation is required, follow the email from Substack.<\/p>\n<p class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__success-hint\">Look in spam or promotions if you don\u2019t see it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Bitcoin\u2019s $85,000 test comes as Wall Street gets two different inflation stories<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\"> <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"\/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<p>Those releases coincide with BEA\u2019s annual update of national and regional economic accounts, which includes revisions to historical series. Traders may reassess their initial reaction to the new inflation figures as they absorb the employment data, GDP estimate, and revisions.<\/p>\n<p>Because ADP comes first, yields may already be moving before the PCE figure lands. The 8:30 a.m. window then combines new inflation data with GDP and a revised historical baseline.<\/p>\n<p>A Bitcoin move during those minutes could reflect more than one release. Following yields through the session and checking where Bitcoin trades after the initial swings would give the price reaction a clearer macro context.<\/p>\n<p>If a hotter PCE reading lifts yields and Bitcoin trades below $81,722, the average position under Seyffart\u2019s estimate would be back in loss territory. The next evidence would come from whether price remains below that level after the first burst of volatility and what subsequent ETF flows and spot buying show.<\/p>\n<p>If a softer reading pulls yields lower, Bitcoin could instead test Glassnode\u2019s $84,000-$85,000 zone. A sustained move through it would say more about demand than a brief spike. A reading close to expectations may give ADP, GDP, and the revisions more influence, keeping Bitcoin between the nearby levels despite sharp intraday moves.<\/p>\n<p>The $81,722 figure is close enough to the Sept. 29 intraday low to be tested by a modest move, but the lasting signal is whether yields confirm the direction and price holds on one side of the estimated ETF-holder basis after the data window clears.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>ETF,Featured,Macro,Market,Bitcoin,BTC,glassnodeBitcoin,BTC,ETF,glassnode#Bitcoin #put #average #ETF #buyer #losses #week1790757106<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Sept. 29 before rebounding above $83,000, close to a price that could change the estimated profitability of the average Bitcoin ETF holder when Wednesday\u2019s US inflation data arrive. A decline of about 2.2% from mid-$83,000 would reach $81,722, a target that Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart estimated<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13891,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[4568,91,285,868,231,2858,653,1309,1190],"class_list":["post-13890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ethereum","tag-average","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-buyer","tag-etf","tag-glassnode","tag-losses","tag-put","tag-week"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.6 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin could put the average ETF buyer back in losses this week - Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin enters Wednesday\u2019s inflation data just 2.2% above the estimated average cost basis for ETF holders at $81,722.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin could put the average ETF buyer back in losses this week\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin enters Wednesday\u2019s inflation data just 2.2% above the estimated average cost basis for ETF holders at $81,722.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-30T08:31:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bitcoin-etf-cost-basis-1.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\u884c\u653f\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\u884c\u653f\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890\",\"name\":\"Bitcoin could put the average ETF buyer back in losses this week - Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bitcoin-etf-cost-basis-1.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-30T08:31:46+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/#\/schema\/person\/822778c5844e0d16d43dce6630f4f1bf\"},\"description\":\"Bitcoin enters Wednesday\u2019s inflation data just 2.2% above the estimated average cost basis for ETF holders at $81,722.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bitcoin-etf-cost-basis-1.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bitcoin-etf-cost-basis-1.webp\",\"width\":1280,\"height\":720},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=13890#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Bitcoin could put the average ETF buyer back in losses this week\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/\",\"name\":\"Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\",\"description\":\"Latest Crypto &amp; 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