{"id":14004,"date":"2026-10-02T12:25:01","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T12:25:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14004"},"modified":"2026-10-02T12:25:01","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T12:25:01","slug":"bitcoin-survived-5-yields-but-cryptos-cheap-money-era-did-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14004","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin survived 5% yields but crypto\u2019s cheap-money era did not"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on Oct. 1, its highest since 2002, capping a third quarter in which it climbed almost 90 basis points, the largest quarterly rise this century. Bitcoin gained about 43% over the same three months and Ethereum about 71%.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin trades in the mid-$80,000s, and the clearest evidence of the yield shock sits in the financing built around it.<\/p>\n

A 5% yield raises the bar, and Q3 buyers cleared it<\/h2>\n

The Federal Reserve’s H.15 release for Oct. 1 put the 10-year at 5.29%, the 30-year at 5.64% and the 10-year real yield at 2.93%. Inflation-adjusted returns on government debt now compete with a coupon-free asset.<\/p>\n

Bond yields climbed to new highs across the US, France, Germany, Japan and the UK, where 30-year borrowing costs reached 6% for the first time since 1998. Brent crude also moved back above $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n

Against that backdrop, US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $6.3 billion in the third quarter and Ethereum ETFs about $3 billion.<\/p>\n

Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000, citing stronger crypto activity, ETF inflows, and gradual adviser and brokerage allocations. Higher yields stayed a headwind, and other sources of demand outweighed it in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

One quarter leaves the long-run relationship open, and ETF demand and adviser allocation shaped the outcome alongside yields.<\/p>\n

On Sept. 23, a stronger PMI pushed yields higher, and Bitcoin slipped below $85,000, with $135.8 million of long liquidations in a single hour and $510 million over 24 hours.<\/p>\n

A separate energy shock involving oil, bond yields, and Fed expectations triggered about $568 million in forced liquidations. The quarter’s direction survived both events, and leveraged traders took the damage.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin leverage gets repriced<\/h2>\n

On Sept. 25, open interest on selected exchanges fell 14.3% as Bitcoin held near $84,000 with the 10-year at 5.22%. Higher benchmark rates raise the cost of capital for explicit borrowing and implicit leverage such as perpetual futures, basis trades, options structures, and collateralized loans.<\/p>\n

Macro shocks also lift volatility enough to force deleveraging inside a bull run.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin treasury companies fund purchases through common equity, preferred stock, and convertible debt, according to Skadden. The model works when shares trade at a premium to net asset value, since selling stock for more than the crypto behind it buys more crypto per share.<\/p>\n

Goodwin describes the sector’s compression from premium valuations to NAV or below, with business models that depend on premium-priced equity and debt facing strain, and many treasury companies now trade at or below NAV.<\/p>\n