{"id":14286,"date":"2026-10-09T12:10:50","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T12:10:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286"},"modified":"2026-10-09T12:10:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T12:10:50","slug":"polymarket-favorites-would-have-lost-4-audit-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket favorites would have lost 4%, audit finds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div data-cs-editorial-figure-scope=\"\" data-cs-editorial-quote-scope=\"\" data-cs-image-viewer-scope=\"\" data-single-article-content=\"\">\n<p>A hypothetical strategy of backing the favorite on prediction market Polymarket in every scored 2026 US primary would have lost 4%, even though those candidates won 87% of the time, according to blockchain data provider Bitquery\u2019s scorecard dated Oct. 9. The result separates two questions for election bettors: who is most likely to win, and whether their contract is worth the price.<\/p>\n<p>Bitquery found that the candidate with the highest study reference price won 238 of 273 Senate, House and governor primaries. But its hypothetical strategy of putting $1 on each favorite at the study\u2019s reference price lost four cents per dollar.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Most world cup traders won less than $5 on Polymarket while FIVE wallets walked away with millions<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\"> <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"\/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<p>The strongest favorites did much of the work behind the headline accuracy rate. Candidates priced at 90 cents or more won 177 of 182 races. Among favorites priced between 50 and 90 cents, however, 71% won despite an average price of 77 cents.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter shoggoth-infographic shoggoth-infographic-portrait wp-image-570290\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c.png\" alt=\"Bitquery\u2019s Oct. 9 scorecard: Polymarket favorites won 238 of 273 primaries, or 87%, while a hypothetical dollar on each lost 4%. Favorites priced 50\u201390 cents won 71% at a 77-cent average price. Reference prices use a 24-hour trade average with a 30-day last-trade fallback; nine markets were excluded.\" width=\"720\" height=\"900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c.png 1122w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c-240x300.png 240w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c-819x1024.png 819w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c-768x960.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload aligncenter shoggoth-infographic shoggoth-infographic-portrait wp-image-570290\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c.png\" alt=\"Bitquery\u2019s Oct. 9 scorecard: Polymarket favorites won 238 of 273 primaries, or 87%, while a hypothetical dollar on each lost 4%. Favorites priced 50\u201390 cents won 71% at a 77-cent average price. Reference prices use a 24-hour trade average with a 30-day last-trade fallback; nine markets were excluded.\" width=\"720\" height=\"900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c.png 1122w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c-240x300.png 240w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c-819x1024.png 819w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/exec-cc1c9010-a165-4420-9221-69f685662a9c-768x960.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>An outcome share pays $1 when it wins and nothing when it loses. Buying an expensive favorite therefore leaves little profit on a winning share, while a losing share wipes out its purchase cost. Enough losses can outweigh many correct calls.<\/p>\n<aside id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter cs-newsletter-brand\" data-newsletter-edition=\"catalyst\" data-inline-newsletter=\"\" data-newsletter-placement=\"article-midpoint\" aria-labelledby=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-title\" aria-describedby=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-copy\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__inner\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__content\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__editorial\">\n<p class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__eyebrow\">The Catalyst<\/p>\n<p class=\"cs-newsletter-frequency\">Daily Newsletter<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-title\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__title\">Know what\u2019s moving crypto.<\/h2>\n<p id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-1-copy\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__copy\">Start with the stories that matter. Get the context behind the headlines and a clear view of what to watch next.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__art\" aria-hidden=\"true\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/themes\/cryptoslate-2020\/images\/catalyst-newsletter-scrapbook-v3.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"640\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/themes\/cryptoslate-2020\/images\/catalyst-newsletter-scrapbook-v3.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"640\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Putting the same dollar amount into every race also buys different numbers of shares. A cheaper winner produces a larger payout for that stake than an expensive winner. Counting correct predictions treats every race equally; calculating returns must account for those different payouts.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Easy money on Polymarket and Kalshi is disappearing as prop firms deploy AI agents<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\"> <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"\/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<h2>Reference prices limit the betting conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Bitquery averaged trades during the 24 hours before 12:00 UTC on voting day. When a candidate had no trade in that window, it used the last trade within the preceding 30 days. For races that went to a runoff, it used the runoff date.<\/p>\n<p>Those averages, and potentially stale fallback trades, are reference prices rather than guaranteed buy quotes at the cutoff. The published methodology does not specify a full adjustment for spreads, slippage or fees. Polymarket\u2019s current fee page lists a politics fee range of 0% to 1%, but does not establish the charges on the historical trades in this sample.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cs-article-embed\">\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__related-reading\">Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"cs-article-embed__title\">Polymarket\u2019s 20% CLARITY Act odds sit on a market one $100K trade could radically reprice<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"cs-article-embed__arrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\"> <i class=\"fa-light fa-arrow-up-right\"\/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<p>The study excluded nine markets because some settled before voting, some lacked usable prices and one lacked a settlement record. It covered primaries in the 50 states using Polygon trade data, leaving out Polymarket\u2019s US app and other venues such as Kalshi.<\/p>\n<p>For November\u2019s prediction markets, the distinction between forecasting and pricing remains useful. The measured primary record itself may not carry over: Bitquery cautions that general elections attract more money and polling than small, local contests.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Featured,Politics,Research,Trading,PolymarketPolymarket#Polymarket #favorites #lost #audit #finds1791547850<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A hypothetical strategy of backing the favorite on prediction market Polymarket in every scored 2026 US primary would have lost 4%, even though those candidates won 87% of the time, according to blockchain data provider Bitquery\u2019s scorecard dated Oct. 9. The result separates two questions for election bettors: who is most likely to win, and<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14287,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[3572,4982,813,455,792],"class_list":["post-14286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ethereum","tag-audit","tag-favorites","tag-finds","tag-lost","tag-polymarket"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.6 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Polymarket favorites would have lost 4%, audit finds - Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Polymarket favorites won 87% of 273 primaries, but Bitquery found that backing each at its reference price would have lost 4%.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Polymarket favorites would have lost 4%, audit finds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Polymarket favorites won 87% of 273 primaries, but Bitquery found that backing each at its reference price would have lost 4%.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-09T12:10:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/polymarket-win-loss-mindset.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\u884c\u653f\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\u884c\u653f\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286\",\"name\":\"Polymarket favorites would have lost 4%, audit finds - Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/polymarket-win-loss-mindset.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-09T12:10:50+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/#\/schema\/person\/822778c5844e0d16d43dce6630f4f1bf\"},\"description\":\"Polymarket favorites won 87% of 273 primaries, but Bitquery found that backing each at its reference price would have lost 4%.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/polymarket-win-loss-mindset.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/polymarket-win-loss-mindset.webp\",\"width\":1280,\"height\":720},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=14286#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Polymarket favorites would have lost 4%, audit finds\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/\",\"name\":\"Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\",\"description\":\"Latest Crypto &amp; 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