{"id":7148,"date":"2026-03-03T07:20:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T07:20:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=7148"},"modified":"2026-03-03T07:20:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T07:20:03","slug":"war-wagers-surge-as-conflict-betting-hits-record-2-4b-and-scrutiny-mounts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=7148","title":{"rendered":"War Wagers Surge as Conflict Betting Hits Record $2.4B and Scrutiny Mounts"},"content":{"rendered":"

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  • Conflict-linked betting on Polymarket reached record volumes, with geopolitical wagers jumping from US$163.9 million to US$425.4 million in the week ending March 1.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Nine of the ten most-traded geopolitical markets focused on Iran, including a controversial US$104 million market on the Supreme Leader\u2019s status following his death over the weekend.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • The surge triggered calls for a regulatory crackdown, as US lawmakers urged the CFTC to act against offshore platforms hosting markets tied to war, terrorism, or assassination.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

    Conflict-linked betting surged on prediction markets last week as traders piled into contracts tied to US-Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing Polymarket volumes to records and drawing calls for a crackdown.<\/p>\n

    User-compiled Dune Analytics data showed Polymarket users placed US$425.4 million (AU$650 million) on geopolitics in the week ending March 1, up from US$163.9 million (AU$250 million) a week earlier.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    Total wagering across the site hit US$2.4 billion (AU$3.6 billion), up from US$1.8 billion (AU$2.7 billion). Geopolitics rose to about 18% of all bets, from roughly 9% the prior week.<\/p>\n

    Related: Bloomberg and Kaiko Bring Licensed Financial Data Onchain to Power Tokenised Markets<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Iran Markets Take Over<\/h2>\n

    Nine of Polymarket\u2019s 10 most-traded geopolitics markets last week were tied to Iran, according to blockchain data. Contracts on the timing of US strikes drew between US$53 million (AU$81 million) and US$8 million (AU$12 million) in weekly volume.<\/p>\n

    The most active geopolitics market asked whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out as Iran\u2019s supreme leader by Feb. 28.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    But Khamenei was killed over the weekend.<\/p>\n

    It drew US$84 million (AU$128 million) in volume during the week, out of US$104 million (AU$157 million) total.<\/p>\n

    After bombs hit Iran on Saturday, blockchain researchers flagged several accounts whose trading they said looked consistent with suspected insider knowledge of the attacks.<\/p>\n

    Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated platform, listed a market on when Khamenei would cease serving as supreme leader, but said it would not resolve if he died, instead settling at the last price before death.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    That was quite controversial and drew a lot of backlash. Keep in mind US rules enforced by the CFTC bar contracts tied to assassination, terrorism or war. Though Kalshi lists fewer Iran-related markets under CFTC rules, and none of its top 10 markets by weekly volume on Monday tracked geopolitics.<\/p>\n

    But Polymarket\u2019s main operators are offshore and outside direct CFTC oversight. Democratic lawmakers wrote to Chair Michael Selig urging action against war- and assassination-linked markets, seeking a response by March 9.<\/p>\n

    Read more: Axiom Employees Exposed For Insider Trading After Latest ZachXBT Investigation Drops<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

    Betting,Iran,Polymarket#War #Wagers #Surge #Conflict #Betting #Hits #Record #2.4B #Scrutiny #Mounts1772522403<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Conflict-linked betting on Polymarket reached record volumes, with geopolitical wagers jumping from US$163.9 million to US$425.4 million in the week ending March 1. Nine of the ten most-traded geopolitical markets focused on Iran, including a controversial US$104 million market on the Supreme Leader\u2019s status following his death over the weekend. The surge triggered calls for<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7149,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[2991,1826,2990,26,2992,245,149,456,2989,516],"class_list":{"0":"post-7148","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin","8":"tag-2-4b","9":"tag-betting","10":"tag-conflict","11":"tag-hits","12":"tag-mounts","13":"tag-record","14":"tag-scrutiny","15":"tag-surge","16":"tag-wagers","17":"tag-war"},"yoast_head":"\nWar Wagers Surge as Conflict Betting Hits Record $2.4B and Scrutiny Mounts - Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=7148\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"War Wagers Surge as Conflict Betting Hits Record $2.4B and Scrutiny Mounts\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Conflict-linked betting on Polymarket reached record volumes, with geopolitical wagers jumping from US$163.9 million to US$425.4 million in the week ending March 1. 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