{"id":7591,"date":"2026-03-18T12:15:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T12:15:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=7591"},"modified":"2026-03-18T12:15:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T12:15:59","slug":"fed-decision-tonight-will-likely-decide-whether-bitcoin-gets-past-80k-or-fall-further","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=7591","title":{"rendered":"Fed decision tonight will likely decide whether Bitcoin gets past $80k or fall further"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Bitcoin has mostly traded around $74,000 on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. However, as of press time, Bitcoin has just lost the $73,500 support, with a route to $72,000 now in sight.<\/p>\n

The meeting is expected to leave the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% while updating projections for inflation, growth, and unemployment after the Middle East conflict pushed energy prices higher.<\/p>\n

The policy rate itself has drawn less attention than the Fed’s quarterly projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Andre Dragosch, Bitwise Europe’s head of research, said:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cMarkets price in no change by the Fed today. Focus will most likely be on forward guidance \/ SEP = `dot plot’ and comments about geopolitical risks & energy today.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Notably, President Donald Trump has pressed Powell to cut borrowing costs immediately, yet investors have moved in the other direction as oil surged and the inflation outlook worsened.<\/p>\n

According to Reuters, futures markets now imply one quarter-point rate cut this year, in September, and another in late 2027, a path that is far tighter than the White House has advocated.<\/p>\n

For crypto traders, that has turned Wednesday’s meeting into a test of whether Bitcoin can extend a recovery that has carried it back into the mid-$70,000s, or whether a firmer Fed message will keep the market pinned below the next major options and psychological threshold near $80,000.<\/p>\n

The setup has become more sensitive because the central bank is dealing with a fresh energy shock at the same time that labor indicators have weakened and a leadership transition is approaching in Washington.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Bitcoin\"Bitcoin<\/div>\n
Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n

Bitcoin price faces a crucial weekend test as US growth collapses to 0.7% while inflation stays stubborn<\/h3>\n

The data looked shaky even before the oil shock, and Powell now has to explain what breaks first.<\/p>\n

Mar 14, 2026<\/span> \u00b7<\/span> Gino Matos<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n

Oil shock reshapes the rate outlook<\/h2>\n

The Fed entered this meeting with the economy already losing momentum before the conflict added another inflation channel.<\/p>\n

US gasoline prices averaged $3.79 a gallon as of Tuesday, more than 25% above where they stood before the war began.<\/p>\n

Due to this, economists such as KPMG’s Diane Swonk expect policymakers to mark up their inflation and unemployment forecasts and reduce their growth outlook, reflecting a policy backdrop that has shifted from a relatively orderly easing debate to a broader dispute over how much inflation risk the Fed can absorb.<\/p>\n

Recent US data support that tension. The Commerce Department reported core PCE inflation at 3.1% year over year in January, the highest reading since March 2024, while fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.7%.<\/p>\n

The labor picture also softened, with the nonfarm payrolls falling by 92,000 in February and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%.<\/p>\n

Those figures leave the Fed balancing a jobs market that has lost momentum against an inflation trend that remains above target before any full pass-through from higher energy costs.<\/p>\n

That mix is central to Bitcoin’s current macro narrative. Through much of the past two years, the flagship digital asset has often traded as a proxy for easier financial conditions, lower real yields, and expanding liquidity.<\/p>\n

Wednesday’s meeting carries a different set of inputs. A Fed that raises inflation forecasts, keeps the median path restrictive, and signals caution on cuts would reduce the case for a rapid expansion in risk appetite, even if digital assets have held firmer than some equity benchmarks during the latest geopolitical shock.<\/p>\n

\n
\"The\"The<\/div>\n
Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n

The latest US inflation report looked like good news, but the Fed may already have a bigger problem<\/h3>\n

February CPI looked reassuring on paper, but it may end up being the last calm snapshot before a new inflation scare.<\/p>\n

Mar 14, 2026<\/span> \u00b7<\/span> Andjela Radmilac<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n

Powell’s term adds a second clock for markets<\/h2>\n

A second timeline is also in play. Powell’s current term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, though his term as a member of the Board of Governors runs until Jan. 31, 2028, according to the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

That distinction has become important for investors trying to map policy beyond Wednesday’s decision. A chair transition that once looked straightforward has become less certain as Trump’s nominee, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, remains stuck in the Senate.<\/p>\n

Warsh’s nomination remains on hold while the legal fight around the Justice Department’s investigation of Powell continues. So, if Warsh is not confirmed by the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, Powell would continue leading rate-setting meetings even after his chair term ends.<\/p>\n

That possibility extends the window during which markets may still be trading Powell’s policy framework, even as Trump continues to signal his preference for lower rates and a different leadership style at the Fed.<\/p>\n

\n
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For Bitcoin, this adds a second layer of interpretation to the Fed meeting. Investors would be reading Wednesday’s projections for clues about 2026, and they would also be weighing how much of the medium-term path could change once the leadership question is settled.<\/p>\n

That does not guarantee a cleaner policy path for crypto or broader risk assets. A delayed transition, Senate friction, and continuing legal disputes around Powell all add uncertainty to the schedule that investors had expected to guide the second half of the year.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin’s rebound meets a policy test<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin has recovered from the sharp slide that took it under $60,000 earlier this quarter, yet the market is still trading far below the record levels seen late last year.<\/p>\n

Citigroup cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $112,000 from $143,000, citing stalled progress on US crypto legislation and a narrower window for regulatory catalysts that could support ETF demand and broader institutional adoption.<\/p>\n

In the same note, Citi described $70,000 as an important level for BTC as the market awaits policy and legislative direction.<\/p>\n

However, industry experts believe BTC could aim higher given the current corporate accumulation, which remains part of the support structure. Crypto market maker Wintermute said:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThe setup is more constructive than it has been in months. The Coinbase premium reset, ETF inflows, and institutional desk flows all point in the same direction. The mid-$60s appears to have attracted a real floor of institutional bids.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

For context, Bitcoin ETFs are currently on their strongest inflow streak since last October, with seven days of consecutive positive cash additions totaling $1.1 billion.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues\u00a0to add to its BTC holdings aggressively. The firm has acquired more than 40,000 BTC this month, lifting its holdings to 761,068 Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

These purchases show that the market’s largest corporate buyers are still adding exposure at prices close to where Bitcoin trades now, even with rate uncertainty unresolved.<\/p>\n

That steady demand has helped build a base of buyers beyond short-term macro traders and exchange-driven momentum accounts.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Citi\"Citi<\/div>\n
Related Reading<\/span><\/p>\n

Citi slashes Bitcoin target by $31,000 despite rising prices as Washington delays stall crypto breakout<\/h3>\n

Citi still sees upside for Bitcoin and Ethereum, but slower US policy is shrinking how far prices can run this year.<\/p>\n

Mar 17, 2026<\/span> \u00b7<\/span> Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n

Considering this, the next technical and derivatives reference point sits near $80,000. CME Group said in a March 6 market note that the $80,000 call strike carried high open interest, making it a focal level for market participants.<\/p>\n

That shows where traders have concentrated exposure as Bitcoin attempts to stabilize after a deep first-quarter drawdown. A move toward that level after the Fed decision would likely pull more attention from options desks and short-term hedgers, especially if Powell leaves the door open for easing later this year.<\/p>\n

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Mentioned in this article<\/span><\/header>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Featured,Macro,Market,TradFi,Trading,Bitcoin,fomcBitcoin,fomc#Fed #decision #tonight #decide #Bitcoin #80k #fall1773836159<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has mostly traded around $74,000 on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. However, as of press time, Bitcoin has just lost the $73,500 support, with a route to $72,000 now in sight. The meeting is expected to leave the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% while updating projections<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7592,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[2079,91,1742,1890,1378,683,3402,3403],"class_list":{"0":"post-7591","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ethereum","8":"tag-80k","9":"tag-bitcoin","10":"tag-decide","11":"tag-decision","12":"tag-fall","13":"tag-fed","14":"tag-fomc","15":"tag-tonight"},"yoast_head":"\nFed decision tonight will likely decide whether Bitcoin gets past $80k or fall further - Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As mixed signals from the Fed loom over Bitcoin, the crypto market sees robust institutional buying and ETF inflows.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=7591\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed decision tonight will likely decide whether Bitcoin gets past $80k or fall further\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As mixed signals from the Fed loom over Bitcoin, the crypto market sees robust institutional buying and ETF inflows.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=7591\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Crypto News: Latest Cryptocurrency News and Analysis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-18T12:15:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/fomc-bitcoin.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1536\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\u884c\u653f\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\u884c\u653f\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=7591\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cryptonews.uk.com\/?p=7591\",\"name\":\"Fed decision tonight will likely decide whether Bitcoin gets past $80k or fall further - 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