Author: 行政

Polymarket and Kalshi are trying to raise money at valuations that put them in the top tier of consumer-fintech names, even as Washington moves closer to writing new rules for the product they sell. Both companies are reportedly in early fundraising talks that could value each at around $20 billion.That fundraising chatter is taking place in the middle of a political storm.Iran-related contracts turned prediction markets from a quirky forecasting niche into a question about insider information and incentives around war. Reuters reviewed Polymarket markets tied to the timing of attacks and Khamenei’s removal and found about $529 million wagered…

Some of Bitcoin’s most trusted bottom signals rest on the simple assumption that when old coins move, something meaningful has changed.Traders and analysts often interpret that as renewed selling, fresh distribution, or signs that the market hasn’t bottomed. That logic helped turn HODL Waves, Coin Days Destroyed, and long-term holder supply into some of the most widely used metrics in Bitcoin cycle analysis.The problem with that is that Bitcoin’s blockchain records movements and has no way of showing the motive behind them.On Nov. 22, 2025, Coinbase said it was transferring BTC and ETH from its legacy wallets to new internal…

Washington has spent years talking about a US CBDC as a distant possibility. It was an abstract policy idea, safely contained inside white papers and partisan messaging. But then the Senate put a number on it and made it very real.On March 2, senators voted 84-6 to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 6644, a broad housing and banking package that would bar the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC until the end of 2030.Only six senators voted no. Cory Booker voted present, and nine senators did not vote.That margin meant that a CBDC stopped being a…

Bitcoin entered the weekend hovering near $71,000, well off the previous week’s spike above $74,000, but far below the highs it touched at the beginning of the year. On price alone, the market looks pretty composed.However, underneath, its structure looks much less comfortable.Data shows spot activity fading while derivatives keep doing more of the work. Almost every day this month saw derivatives trading at roughly nine times the spot volume, and that’s not the profile of a market pushed forward by spot demand. What we’re seeing now is a market propped up almost exclusively by leverage.Chart showing the aggregated trading…

On Mar. 12, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a staff advisory telling exchanges to tighten surveillance on event contracts.Simultaneously, the regulator opened a 45-day rulemaking process that asks pointed questions about inside information, manipulation, and whether some markets serve the public interest at all.Two weeks earlier, the agency had spotlighted two Kalshi disciplinary cases involving traders who appeared to hold decisive informational edges.One is a California gubernatorial candidate who bet on his own race, the other a YouTube editor who traded contracts tied to “Mr. Beast” while likely holding material nonpublic information.The Mar. 12 move treats prediction markets…

February’s CPI report gave markets a reason to relax. Inflation looked soft enough to keep hopes for rate cuts alive, with consumer prices up 0.3% on the month and 2.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI rose 0.2% in the month and 2.5% annually. Shelter kept cooling, and the overall picture looked manageable for the Fed.But the relief came with a catch.By the time the report arrived on March 11, the picture had already changed. The labor market weakened, last year’s payroll data was revised lower, and the conflict in Iran pushed oil to record highs.That’s the real issue…

A quiet shift is underway in the stablecoin hierarchy. While Tether’s USDT still dominates the digital dollar market, the gap between the two largest issuers is narrowing as USDC steadily expands its footprint and Tether’s growth shows signs of softening.Additionally, USDC is gaining ground in the places where the next wave of crypto money is likely to show up most clearly: regulated payments, institutional settlement, and high-velocity on-chain transfers.Tether’s USDT still holds the largest stock of digital dollars in circulation, but the contest is shifting from a simple market-cap race to a fight over which issuer controls the rails that…

Four coins in enhanced uncirculated finish are scheduled for release this year by the United States Mint, including a single gold issue. Images of that coin — the 2026-W Enhanced Uncirculated American Gold Eagle — have now been published by the Mint, days after it did the same for the companion 2026-W Enhanced Uncirculated Silver Eagle. One of the five product images published by the U.S. Mint for the 2026-W Enhanced Uncirculated American Gold Eagle Like the silver issue, the gold coin will feature a semiquincentennial dual date, 1776 ~ 2026, a Liberty Bell privy mark bearing the numeral “250,”…

Washington is getting ready to potentially make life easier for the biggest US banks.That can sound pretty abstract if you don’t strip it down to the mechanics. Regulators decide how much capital banks must keep to absorb losses and how much liquidity they need if funding starts to disappear.More capital and more liquidity make banks sturdier, though they also limit how much money banks can lend, trade, or return to shareholders. Less of both gives banks more room to move while leaving a thinner cushion when conditions turn.That tradeoff is now back at the center of US bank policy. On…

On Mar. 13, the US economy delivered a data dump that landed somewhere between uncomfortable and alarming.The GDP for the 2025 fourth quarter was revised down to 0.7% from an initial estimate of 1.4%, following 4.4% growth in the third quarter.January core PCE rose 3.1% year over year, with a 0.4% monthly increase. January durable-goods orders were virtually unchanged, while core capital goods orders came in flat, with shipments down 0.1%. Real consumer spending edged up just 0.1%.These numbers were delayed by last year’s 43-day shutdown and hit the market after the Feb. 28 start of the US-Israeli war on…