- Bitcoin climbed roughly 1% from an intraday low near US$68,450 to just above US$69,000 after President Trump extended his pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure from five to 10 days.
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.43%, its highest level since August and up 48 basis points since the Iran conflict began on Feb. 28, crushing near-term rate-cut expectations.
- Crypto fear gauges entered “extreme fear” territory in the final week of March as the Fed’s revised dot plot signalled only one rate cut for the remainder of 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC) edged higher on March 26 after President Donald Trump said he would extend his pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days, giving markets brief relief after a broader risk-off selloff tied to rising yields and weaker rate-cut expectations.
The cryptocurrency recovered about 1% from an intraday low near US$68,450 (AU$99,253) to trade just above US$69,000 (AU$100,050). The bounce followed a session in which Bitcoin had fallen more than 3% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.4%.
Trump said diplomatic talks were “very good and productive” and aimed at a full resolution, but Iranian state media denied any negotiations were underway, leaving the truce’s durability in doubt.
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Crypto Markets Under Pressure
Markets remain under pressure from higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation risks. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.43%, its highest level since August and up 48 basis points since the Iran conflict began on Feb. 28. The five-year yield climbed to 4.10%, a nine-month high.
Brent crude pulled back from an early-conflict spike to US$115 (AU$167) per barrel but stayed elevated, reinforcing concern that energy prices could keep inflation high.
That has further weakened hopes for Federal Reserve easing. The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% on March 18, and its updated dot plot pointed to just one cut for the rest of 2026.
Seven policymakers now expect no cuts this year. Chair Jerome Powell said inflation’s “last mile” remains difficult, while futures markets now price the first cut no earlier than December 2026.
It’s worth noting that Bitcoin ETFs posted US$167.2 million (AU$242.4 million) in net inflows on March 23 after Trump first announced a five-day pause, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing US$160.8 million (AU$233.2 million).
However, the next day, after Iran denied talks were taking place, the funds swung to a US$66.6 million (AU$96.6 million) net outflow, not to mention the negative effect it had on BTC.
By March 25, week-to-date flows were still modestly positive at US$100.6 million (AU$145.9 million).
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