- Bitwise CIO, Matt Hougan, believes continued fracturing of the US dollar’s hegemony over global transactions driven by geopolitical instability could drive Bitcoin’s price to over US$1 million.
- Hougan argues that since the start of the Ukraine conflict use of alternatives to the US dollar has grown, leading to Bitcoin being used increasingly as a currency.
- This trend was accelerated recently when Iran claimed it would require tolls to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to be paid in Bitcoin.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, believes the global instability sparked by the Ukraine war and more recently by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may be the start of long-term trends that could make a US$1 million target price for Bitcoin realistic.
In an article published on the Bitwise website April 13, Hougan highlighted the fact that since the start of the Iranian conflict on February 28, Bitcoin has actually performed relatively strong, increasing in value by 12% while over the same period the S&P 500 is down 1% and gold is down 10%.
When nations feud, the incentive to deal with apolitical money like bitcoin goes up.
Matt Hougan, CIO Bitwise Hougan’s explanation for this strong performance is a little unorthodox — he argues that it’s the Iranian conflict itself that is driving Bitcoin’s price, not second-order effects like war-induced money printing. “Bitcoin’s strength during this crisis stems directly from the conflict itself,” Hougan said.
Hougan likened Bitcoin’s behaviour in response to the Iran conflict in particular, to an out-of-money call option, saying that “when the war broke out in the Middle East, the world’s monetary order became more volatile. I’d argue that this alone increased the probability of bitcoin becoming a global currency — and therefore made it a more valuable out-of-the-money call option.”
Both the Ukraine and Iran conflicts have weakened the US dollar’s status as the default currency for global transactions though, according to Hougan, opening up the path for increased usage of the Chinese yuan in particular, but also leading to increased use of Bitcoin as currency.
According to Hougan this US dollar dominance began to decline in 2022, after the start of the Ukraine conflict, when Russia turned to China for support. At the start of the conflict, only 2% of Russian trade was settled in yuan; today, that figure is 99%, according to data cited by Hougan.
Now, in a significant development, the Iranian regime has asked for tolls it intends to place on the Strait of Hormuz to be paid in Bitcoin. While Hougan said it’s not yet clear whether Iran truly intends to use Bitcoin or will instead opt for the Chinese yuan, what is clear, he argues, is that as the U.S. dollar’s hegemony continues to weaken, “countries are slowly finding ways to weave bitcoin — an apolitical currency — into global commerce.”
Related: Iran Eyes Crypto Payments for Strait of Hormuz Oil Transit Fees During Ceasefire
Implications of Bitcoin Being Used by Iran for Hormuz Tolls
According to Hougan, the implications of Bitcoin being used by Iran for the payment of Strait of Hormuz tolls are potentially huge.
Firstly, he said it’s likely Bitcoin will be increasingly used as a hedge against geopolitical strife.
“Challenging international developments that shake up global alliances increase the volatility of the world’s financial order, which raises the value of bitcoin as a call option,” Hougan explained.
Related: Bitcoin’s Quantum Scare Already Priced In, Says Bernstein
The second, and perhaps more interesting implication for many crypto investors, is that the price of Bitcoin could soar.
“International transactions are a very large market,” Hougan said.
If bitcoin takes on a dual role as a store of value (like gold) and a currency (like the dollar), then $1 million per bitcoin begins to look like a starting point.
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