US-Iran 60-day ceasefire would keep Bitcoin hostage to macro uncertainty

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Nikkei reported on May 25 that the US and Iran were discussing a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz roughly 30 days from a final deal, with the early-April ceasefire extended for 60 days and nuclear talks held during that window.

That relief setup for Bitcoin has already been tested.

The US military said it carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran targeting missile launch sites and boats placing mines, while saying it was using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.

The early-morning update changes the market situation. A ceasefire extension still lowers the immediate probability of a wider escalation, but fresh strikes near Hormuz show that the risk has moved from theoretical to active.

Brent crude rebounded after Monday’s decline, equities traded mixed, and Bitcoin remained pinned near the mid-$76,000s as traders weighed a diplomatic track that remains open against a conflict channel that has not closed.

A ceasefire extension read positively for crypto, as lower oil eases inflation anxiety, softer energy prices reduce safe-haven demand for dollars, and better risk sentiment gives Bitcoin room to breathe.

What the market got was a relief trade, and the Federal Reserve’s rate path and the macro ceiling that has capped Bitcoin since hostilities began will tell if this trade will hold.

Now, the issue is whether Bitcoin can sustain a rally while oil flows, Fed expectations, and military headlines remain unstable.

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New strikes turn the ceasefire into a live Bitcoin test

The latest US strikes do not necessarily end the ceasefire framework, but they do change how markets have to price it.

CENTCOM characterized the strikes as defensive and said US forces were still using restraint during the ceasefire. That framing keeps the diplomatic track alive, but it also confirms that Hormuz remains an active military-risk zone rather than a resolved shipping corridor.

That distinction matters for Bitcoin. A headline-driven oil drop can support a short-term risk bid, but fresh military action near the strait keeps inflation risk, safe-haven demand, and Fed caution in the trade.

The market can still rally on a deal framework. It cannot yet price a durable macro release until the Strait is open, tanker flows normalize, and the strike cycle stops interrupting the diplomatic process.

Sixty days of live headline risk

The Nikkei report noted that Hormuz would open roughly 30 days from a final deal, and the ceasefire extension first creates a two-month negotiation window.

That sequence leaves markets facing at least 60 more days of exposure to live headline risk related to Hormuz access, tanker flows, mine-clearing timelines, nuclear talks, conflicting official statements, and any escalation that could collapse the window before it closes.

The Guardian reported that the US and Iran stayed at odds over key issues, including Iran’s Hormuz blockade, while oil fell on peace-deal hopes, with an Iranian government spokesperson saying a deal was “not imminent” and adding that even if the strait reopens, a return to normal oil flows could take months.

Every oil headline between now and the 60-day deadline lands on markets that cannot yet price a clean end to the energy disruption, which is precisely the condition under which Bitcoin rallies stay capped.

Bitcoin climbed toward $82,000 as WTI fell about 6% on peace-deal hopes earlier in May, then dropped to $76,500 on May 18 when Trump warned Iran that the “clock is ticking,” pushing Brent briefly above $112 and weakening risk assets.

The ceasefire extension may produce another version of that first trade, a relief rally without the macro foundation to hold.

Lower oil and stable oil are different assets

Brent falling below $100 improves sentiment, but the Federal Reserve prices energy differently than equity traders do.

EIA data show that 20.9 million barrels per day moved through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2025, roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption and one-quarter of seaborne oil trade.

Reports noted that about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supply normally moves through Hormuz, with pre-war shipping traffic averaging 125 to 140 daily passages, and separately reported that only several tankers had crossed recently, with traffic running far below pre-war norms even before the ceasefire extension.

A diplomatic headline can send Brent lower within hours, but normalizing tanker traffic through a recently blockaded strait takes months, which is precisely the timeline the Fed weighs when deciding whether the energy disruption has passed.