Author: 行政

Spot Bitcoin ETFs gave the market a clean, daily scoreboard: a green print meant fresh cash crossing the boundary from traditional brokerage accounts into Bitcoin exposure, and a red print meant the opposite.For much of the first year of spot ETFs in the US, that scoreboard tracked sentiment and set the market’s tempo. Traders learned to treat flows as the simplest proxy for a real bid, because the buyer was observable, usually price-insensitive, and large enough to matter.But that habit is now getting seriously stress-tested.The risk in this phase now comes from flat days, because the cushion disappears without a…

A Trump-linked crypto firm is bringing the former president’s brand into the structured credit market.World Liberty Financial plans to tokenize loan-revenue interests tied to the Trump International Hotel and Resort Maldives, offering investors exposure to projected interest payments connected to the project’s financing rather than ownership of the property itself.With the completion date set for 2030, the deal converts future debt service into a digital security and places the current President’s name at the center of a regulated financial product.Put simply, investors will be buying a slice of a resort loan’s interest payments rather than buying any part of the…

Bank of America’s latest market call reads less like a typical bear forecast and more like a structural warning about what happens when markets stop paying premium multiples, even if profits keep growing.The firm argues that the S&P 500 remains “statistically expensive” on 18 of 20 valuation metrics, with four near-record highs, and expects P/E compression despite forecasting robust 14% earnings growth.That setup of strong fundamentals meeting falling multiples creates a textbook risk-off problem for Bitcoin, which has increasingly traded as a high-volatility equity beta rather than the diversifier narrative that dominated crypto’s early institutional pitch.The mechanics matter because BofA…

CME’s Cardano futures went live on Feb. 9, and that date may matter more for ETFs than for trading.Under the SEC’s new generic listing standards for commodity-based trust shares, one of the clearest fast lanes for a spot crypto ETP is having regulated futures on a CFTC-supervised venue for at least six months.That turns Feb. 9 into a starting gun: if CME’s ADA futures remain listed and active, the earliest six-month threshold falls around Aug. 9, potentially shortening the path to launch compared with the old process, Reuters says, which could take up to 240 days.None of this guarantees approval.…

Bitcoin trades sideways as Trump cites Trade Act for 15% tariffs after Supreme Court limits IEEPA authority, and the market starts watching the 150-day clockIt is one of those rare weekend sessions where the chart barely moves… yet it still feels like something is about to snap.Bitcoin is hovering around $68,000, chopping inside a tight band, while Washington hands markets a story that is both legal and macro at once.The U.S. Supreme Court just narrowed the emergency-powers tariff pathway Trump relied on, and the White House is now pointing to a different statute to keep a 15% duty alive, at…

Earlier this month, we saw the macro picture shift in a very real and tangible way. The record of last year’s job level changed significantly, and markets treated that update as fresh information to trade on.Two days later, inflation cooled on the headline, yields moved, and Bitcoin moved in the same cross-asset rhythm that, until recently, belonged to rates and major equity indexes.Bitcoin used to react to crypto-specific headlines: a big company buying BTC, a new product launch, or a regulatory rumor. But in 2026, the price seems to react first to the same macro data that moves bonds and…

Bitcoin sometimes sells off hard on days with no crypto headlines. A recurring driver sits outside crypto: a yen-funded carry unwind that forces cross-asset deleveraging, then transmits into BTC through thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and fast position reduction in derivatives.Here’s the core mechanism in one line: if USD/JPY moves fast enough to trigger margin and VAR cuts, BTC can sell off like it got bad news even when crypto headlines stay quiet.Japan’s FX officials have started speaking in a way that markets treat as a constraint. On Feb. 12, 2026, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said Tokyo “has not…

A set of new ETF filings wants to turn election outcomes into brokerage-account tickers.If approved, they’d also make “political risk” a tradable product on the same rails that already carry spot Bitcoin ETFs, pulling attention, liquidity, and regulatory pressure into the same lane.Roundhill, GraniteShares, and Bitwise’s PredictionShares brand propose funds that track binary “event contracts” tied to US political outcomes, such as which party wins the presidency and which party controls the House or Senate. These contracts trade between $0 and $1 in a way that resembles a probability, then settle at $1 for “yes” and $0 for “no” once…

The Supreme Court’s Feb. 20 decision striking down President Donald Trump’s IEEPA-based tariff program as illegal creates a massive fiscal overhang that could function as an unintended liquidity injection.The Court ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, invalidating a program that collected at least $133.5 billion through Dec. 14, 2025, with Penn-Wharton Budget Model estimates suggesting total receipts reached approximately $179 billion by the ruling date.Markets reacted immediately: stocks jumped, the dollar weakened, and Treasury yields edged higher as traders began pricing what could become one of the largest unplanned…

Bitcoin just got ~15% harder to mine as hashrate falls—pushing miner revenue back into the $30 stress zoneBitcoin’s mining economy has tightened again, but its undertones could pave the way for a price recovery in the top crypto.Over the past weeks, the network difficulty jumped, while the hashrate has shown signs of softening. At the same time, BTC miner margins have come under increased pressure as their revenue slipped back toward stress levels.That combination has repeatedly materialized near major inflection points in previous market cycles.While market analysts caution that this is not a magic buy signal for investors, the structural…