Cardano price analysis: can ADA avoid a drop to $0.13?

• Cardano (ADA) trades near $0.160 with weak momentum and fading buying pressure.
• The key support at $0.157 is critical, with $0.13 risk if it breaks.
• Oversold signals and the Leios testnet could trigger a short rebound soon.

Cardano (ADA) continues to trade under pressure, holding near the lower end of its recent range as both spot and derivatives markets reflect cautious sentiment.

The token is priced at $0.1607, down 3.2% in the past 24 hours.

Over longer timeframes, the token is down 6.1% over the past 7 days, down 35.6% over the past month, and down 73.2% in the past year, reflecting sustained downside pressure across the broader trend structure.

Daily trading activity, however, remains active, with $368.8 million in 24-hour volume.

Weak derivatives positioning and fading participation

In the derivatives market, the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.96, indicating slightly more short positions than long positions among traders.

Futures open interest is around $348 million, continuing a broader decline from mid-May levels.

This reduction in open interest signals lower speculative engagement and suggests that traders are reducing exposure rather than building conviction positions in either direction.

On-chain indicators also reflect strain in market behaviour.

The Network Realised Profit/Loss (NPL) metric has dropped sharply, showing that a large portion of recent holders have been realising losses rather than gains.

This type of activity is commonly associated with capitulation phases, where weaker holders exit positions under sustained price pressure.

Cardano technical analysis

Cardano remains below its major long-term moving averages, confirming that the broader trend is still bearish.

The altcoin’s price is trading under the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which typically reinforces resistance during attempted recoveries.

The RSI (14) on the daily chart is around 31, suggesting bearish control is still present, though no longer in extreme oversold territory.

Cardano price outlook heading into the Leios testnet catalyst

A key event in the near-term outlook is the expected Leios scaling upgrade testnet around June 23.

This upgrade testnet is being closely watched as a potential catalyst for renewed activity within the Cardano ecosystem.

The current market structure at this stage remains weak, but conditions are showing early signs of compression.

Oversold readings on higher timeframes, combined with reduced selling momentum, suggest that price is approaching a decision point rather than continuing in a steady decline without interruption.

If bulls step in around the $0.157 support zone, a short-term rebound toward $0.172 remains the primary recovery scenario.

However, failure to hold this level would keep downside projections toward $0.148 and potentially $0.13 in focus, depending on how market liquidity and sentiment evolve.

Notably, a bearish flag breakdown has also been noted in recent technical assessments, a formation that typically signals continuation of an existing downtrend after a brief consolidation phase.

This adds weight to the downside risk scenario unless buyers regain control above key resistance levels.