Ethereum reclaims $2,431 as buyers absorb rate hike and regulatory setback

Key takeaways

• Ethereum gained 1.7% and reclaimed the important $2,431 level.
• US spot Ethereum ETFs lost $365.5 million across Tuesday and Wednesday.
• A break above $2,544 could target $2,626, while major support sits near $2,269–$2,282.

Ethereum (ETH) gained 1.7% over 24 hours and reclaimed $2,431 despite the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase in three years and the CLARITY Act’s failure to advance in the US Senate.

Exchange outflows, renewed buy-side activity in perpetual futures and short liquidations suggest that crypto-native traders are buying the pullback. 

However, continued outflows from US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds indicate that institutional demand remains weak.

Ethereum holds above $2,400 after Fed rate hike

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest-rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on Wednesday.

The unanimous 12–0 decision was widely anticipated, with markets assigning a probability above 90% to the increase before the meeting. Most Fed officials also expect another rate hike before the end of 2026.

Higher interest rates generally pressure cryptocurrencies by raising borrowing costs and increasing the appeal of yield-bearing assets. 

However, Ethereum remained above $2,400, suggesting that traders had largely priced in the decision.

The CLARITY Act’s failure to secure the 60 Senate votes required to invoke cloture also produced only a temporary decline before buyers returned.

More than 152,000 ETH left cryptocurrency exchanges on Tuesday, marking the largest daily net outflow since June, according to CryptoQuant.

Inflows briefly exceeded withdrawals on Wednesday, but the metric subsequently returned to net outflows.

Large exchange withdrawals can suggest that investors are moving ETH into private wallets rather than preparing to sell it. They also reduce the supply immediately available for trading, potentially supporting prices if demand remains steady.

However, exchange flows can reflect transfers between custodians and do not always represent outright buying.

Ethereum’s taker buy-sell ratio has returned to buy-side territory after briefly signaling stronger selling on Tuesday.

The ratio compares market-buying volume with market-selling volume in perpetual futures. A reading above one indicates that buyers using market orders are more aggressive than sellers.

Liquidation data also points to improving sentiment. Ethereum recorded $221 million in liquidations on Tuesday, with long positions accounting for 88% of the total.

Over the subsequent 24 hours, liquidations declined to $87.6 million. Short positions accounted for $45.4 million, suggesting that rising prices forced some bearish traders out of the market.

Open interest remained close to 13 million ETH across two days, while funding rates returned to positive territory after briefly becoming negative.

Institutional flows present a less constructive picture. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $224.1 million in net outflows on Wednesday, following $141.4 million in withdrawals on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue.

The products therefore lost a combined $365.5 million across two sessions. Continued ETF selling contrasts with the accumulation signals visible on cryptocurrency exchanges and in derivatives markets. 

This divergence suggests crypto-native buyers may be absorbing the decline while traditional investment vehicles face redemptions.

ETH reclaims the 20-Day EMA

Ethereum has recovered above the $2,431 horizontal level and its 20-day exponential moving average, both of which provided important support during the past month.

Momentum indicators remain neutral. The Relative Strength Index stands at 53, while the Stochastic oscillator is near 26. These readings suggest consolidation rather than overbought conditions.

Immediate resistance sits at $2,544. A sustained breakout could allow ETH to target $2,626 and then $2,786.

If Ethereum loses $2,431, the 50-day EMA at $2,282 and the 200-day EMA at $2,269 form the next major support zone. Lower levels include $2,172, the 100-day EMA at $2,163, and horizontal support at $1,961.