BTC slips below $63K as Middle East tensions offset ETF inflows

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin fell to $63,000 after renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weakened investor risk appetite.
• The U.S. military’s latest strikes on Iran and heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz boosted demand for safe-haven assets while pressuring cryptocurrencies.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197.4 million in weekly inflows, ending an eight-week streak of net outflows, but institutional buying failed to offset broader market uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $63,000 on Monday as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weakened investor appetite for risk assets, overshadowing improving institutional demand through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Although Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first week of net inflows in nearly two months, renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz kept bullish momentum in check.

Middle East escalation sparks risk-off trading

Market sentiment deteriorated after the United States launched fresh military strikes against Iranian targets on Sunday.

According to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the operation targeted Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar installations, missile and drone capabilities, as well as naval assets using fighter aircraft, warships, and both aerial and maritime attack drones.

Iranian media reported multiple explosions near Sirik, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Jask—areas located close to key military infrastructure surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation intensified after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly targeted another commercial vessel and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.

The escalating conflict prompted investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets, driving West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil above $75 per barrel while cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, came under renewed selling pressure.

Despite the broader market weakness, institutional demand showed signs of recovery.

According to CoinGlass, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $197.4 million in net inflows last week, ending an eight-week streak of consecutive outflows that began in mid-May.

The return of institutional buying suggests long-term investor confidence remains intact. However, the renewed geopolitical uncertainty limited the immediate impact of these inflows on Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin price analysis: Bears continue to defend $64,000

Bitcoin was trading around $63,055 at the time of writing, remaining below the critical $64,000 resistance level.

The cryptocurrency continues to trade beneath all of its major exponential moving averages (EMAs), highlighting the prevailing bearish market structure.

Key resistance levels include:

• 50-day EMA: $65,192
• 100-day EMA: $68,686
• 200-day EMA: $74,736

These technical barriers continue to form a strong overhead supply zone, limiting recovery attempts.

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be easing, but a bullish reversal has yet to emerge. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains just below the neutral 50 level, indicating that buyers have not yet regained control.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, suggesting downside momentum has moderated. 

However, the broader technical structure remains bearish as long as Bitcoin trades below key resistance levels.

The immediate resistance remains the $64,004 horizontal barrier, where recent rallies have repeatedly stalled.

If buyers successfully reclaim that level, attention will shift to the 50-day EMA at $65,192, the 100-day EMA ($68,686), and the 200-day EMA ($74,736).

A sustained breakout above these levels could open the door to a longer-term move toward the $84,410 resistance zone.

On the downside, Bitcoin lacks strong technical support immediately below current prices. If selling pressure intensifies, traders are likely to focus on the $60,000 psychological level, which could serve as the next major support area.

For now, Bitcoin’s near-term direction will likely depend on whether geopolitical tensions ease and whether improving institutional demand through spot ETFs can outweigh broader macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.