- Brandt expects further downside before Bitcoin completes its current bear market cycle later in 2026.
- He argues genuine market bottoms are driven by investor capitulation rather than cautious optimism.
- Despite near-term weakness, he believes Bitcoin can reach substantially higher prices before the next cycle peak.
Peter Brandt expects Bitcoin’s current market cycle to bottom on 4 October 2026, saying he believes the cryptocurrency still has further downside before a durable recovery can begin. While he has held this view for some time, he stressed that forecasting the precise date of a market low is inherently uncertain.
The veteran trader said Bitcoin may fall below US$50,000 (AU$72,500) and could even reach the high-US$40,000 (high-AU$60,000) range before establishing its bear market low. He also suggested the market could first stage a short-lived rally before resuming its decline.
Brandt argued that current sentiment does not resemble the conditions typically seen at major market bottoms, saying a true low is usually accompanied by panic, with investors abandoning bullish views and concluding that Bitcoin’s prospects have faded.
Right now it’s neutral. Markets don’t bottom on neutral sentiment. Markets bottom on panic and volume.
Peter Brandt, Veteran Trader Related: Bitcoin Slides as Risk-Off Sentiment Returns Amid Iran Strikes, Tech Selloff
Past Bear Markets Remain a Key Guide
He said previous Bitcoin bear markets have generally recorded declines of more than 80% from their highs. Although applying that pattern to Bitcoin’s recent peak above US$120,000 (AU$174,000) would indicate a much lower price, Brandt said he expects the cryptocurrency’s increasing maturity to reduce the likelihood of such an extreme correction this cycle.
Although Brandt remains cautious in the short term, he continues to hold a positive long-term outlook. He forecasts Bitcoin could eventually climb to between US$250,000 (AU$362,500) and US$300,000 (AU$435,000) before reaching its next cycle peak in 2029, while noting those projections remain speculative.
Related: ‘110 Reasons’ Why BIP-110 Is a Bad Idea: Michael Saylor Rejects Bitcoin Soft Fork
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