Bears maintain control for ADA as mixed derivatives signal market uncertainty

Key takeaways

• Cardano (ADA) is trading below $0.168 after being rejected at the 50-day EMA.
• Derivatives data presents mixed signals, with the long-to-short ratio remaining bullish while funding rates have turned negative.
• Large Cardano whales have accumulated approximately 120 million ADA since Monday.

Cardano (ADA) extended its losses on Friday, trading below $0.168 after buyers failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) earlier in the week.

Although some large investors continue accumulating ADA, mixed derivatives data and subdued technical indicators suggest the market remains uncertain about the cryptocurrency’s next major move.

Derivatives data reflects divided trader sentiment

Cardano’s derivatives market is sending conflicting signals. According to CoinGlass data, ADA’s long-to-short ratio stood at 1.07 on Friday. 

A reading above one indicates that more traders are positioning for price gains than declines, reflecting a modest bullish bias among leveraged traders.

However, other derivatives metrics tell a different story. Cardano’s perpetual futures funding rates flipped into negative territory on Thursday and remained at approximately -0.014 on Friday.

Negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are paying long-position holders, typically signaling increased bearish sentiment and expectations of further downside.

The contrast between bullish positioning and negative funding highlights growing uncertainty among traders.

On-chain data suggests larger investors have continued buying despite recent price weakness.

According to Santiment, wallets holding 1 million to 10 million ADA and 10 million to 100 million ADA have accumulated approximately 120 million ADA since Monday.

Meanwhile, wallets containing 100,000 to 1 million ADA have shown relatively little activity.

The selective accumulation by larger holders may indicate confidence in Cardano’s longer-term outlook, although the buying has not yet been strong enough to trigger a broader shift in market sentiment.

ADA remains below major moving averages

From a technical standpoint, Cardano continues to trade within a broader bearish structure.

ADA remains below the 50-day EMA ($0.176), the 100-day EMA ($0.202), and the 200-day EMA ($0.267)

The inability to reclaim these levels suggests sellers remain in control of the medium-term trend.

Technical momentum indicators point to a market lacking clear direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 48, reflecting balanced buying and selling pressure without a strong trend.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly above the zero line, suggesting that although occasional recovery attempts continue, bullish momentum remains relatively weak.

Adding to the technical challenge, a previously broken long-term downtrend line near $0.197 has now become a significant resistance level.

For bullish momentum to strengthen, ADA must first overcome several nearby resistance levels, including $0.176 (50-day EMA) and $0.197 (former long-term trendline resistance).

A sustained move above these barriers would improve Cardano’s short-term outlook.

On the downside, traders are watching:

• $0.150 – Immediate horizontal support
• $0.138 – Key Fibonacci support

A break below $0.138 could expose ADA to fresh lows and reinforce the broader bearish trend.

Cardano continues to face selling pressure after failing to reclaim the 50-day EMA, while mixed derivatives signals reflect uncertainty among market participants.

For now, ADA’s ability to hold above $0.150 while reclaiming the $0.173-$0.176 resistance zone will likely determine whether the token can build a stronger recovery or extend its recent decline.