- Bitcoin rallied over 25% in a week, but needs a close above US$83,000 to officially confirm a new bull market.
- Swyftx analyst Pav Hundal warns the US$80-83k band has capped rallies before, and buyers now need a fresh weekly high to break out of it.
- CryptoQuant’s Bull Score has jumped from 30 to 80, though short-term holders have already banked US$1.2 billion in profits.
- Bernstein predicts Bitcoin could hit US$300,000 by 2029 and US$1 million by 2033, even as rising exchange inflows hint at more sell pressure ahead.
Bitcoin’s up over 25% since last week, and analysts at CryptoQuant reckon a new bull run has quietly begun. Though not officially just yet.
For that stamp of approval, price needs to close above the 365-day moving average, sat around US$83,000 (AU$115,563). Bitcoin’s currently hovering below it, near US$79,000 (AU$109,994).
Two things are at play according to the analysts: the US Treasury doubling its long-term bond buybacks from September, and Trump musing that Washington might start buying Bitcoin itself. Markets, predictably, got excited.
Read also: Strategy Raises $2 Billion Without Buying More Bitcoin
BTC Near Key Levels, Says Analyst
It’s not the first time this zone’s played spoilsport. Swyftx Lead Analyst Pav Hundal points out that the same US$80-83k (AU$111.4k-115.5k) band capped Bitcoin’s last leg-up back in May, exactly where this latest rally’s weekly close landed too.
Hundal asked in his latest analysis:
Could this key level prove to be another barrier for BTC? Or could it provide the springboard for a move higher?
Swyftx Lead Analyst Pav Hundal His view: watch whether buyers can force a new weekly higher high in the next few days. Fail to do that, and last week’s rally starts looking like a short squeeze that ran out of steam rather than the start of something bigger.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score has leapt from 30 to 80 in a week, the strongest reading since October, when BTC was flirting with US$124,000 (AU$172,662). Eight of ten metrics the firm tracks are now bullish. Spot and futures demand are climbing together for the first time since Bitcoin’s last all-time high.
Not everyone’s cashing in calmly, though. Short-term holders pocketed US$1.2 billion (AU$1.67 billion) in profits in just three days, including a single-day record of US$614 million (AU$854 million).
Exchange inflows across Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP have all jumped to multi-month highs, mostly landing on Binance, which is usually a sign people fancy selling.
Bernstein’s Bold Prediction
Meanwhile, researchers at Bernstein, a prominent Wall Street firm, have made new bullish claims. They call for US$125,000 (AU$174,012) – base or bull case – per BTC by late 2026.
According to a report seen by Cointelegraph, Bernstein’s base case has Bitcoin hitting US$150,000 (AU$208,825) by mid-2027, then climbing to a cycle peak around US$300,000 (AU$417,651) in 2029.
Read more: XRP Up 44% as Korean Bank Taps Ripple for Cross-Border Payments
The upside scenario goes even further: US$200,000 (AU$278,438) by mid-2027 and US$500,000 (AU$696,097) by 2029.
Either way, the long-term target doesn’t budge. Bernstein’s sticking with roughly US$1 million (AU$1.39 million) by 2033, base case or bull case.
The logic leans on Bitcoin’s old four-year rhythm, tied to the halving, which is the periodic event that slashes miner rewards. Bernstein slices each cycle into four stages: breakout, hype, drawdown, accumulation.
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