Bitcoin trades near $77,381, and Glassnode says 68% of circulating supply now sits in profit at this level, up from 65% when BTC traded here in May.
That three-point gap works out to roughly 600,000 additional BTC, an estimate worth about $47 billion at current prices, that could be sold for a gain before Bitcoin even reaches its next major resistance band.
Bitcoin summer accumulation built the floor and the overhang at once
The short-term holder cost basis now sits near $71,000, reset lower by months of trading through the June-to-August range. Buyers who accumulated during that stretch are already profitable at today’s price, well before Bitcoin revisits its highs.
The same accumulation that steadied Bitcoin’s floor through the drawdown also built a larger pool of holders with real gains to protect as it moves back up.
Glassnode’s latest report identifies heavy long-term holder supply concentrated between $83,000 and $86,000, and the firm’s prior research quantified that band at roughly 1.05 million BTC.
Those coins belong to holders who sat through the entire drawdown without selling, and a return to that zone would make them whole for the first time since the correction began.
Bitcoin’s path to a real breakout runs through two distinct seller types in sequence: newly profitable buyers near current prices first, then patient long-term holders approaching breakeven higher up.
Coins sitting in profit represent potential supply, and Bitcoin now needs fresh demand large enough to absorb both cohorts if either one starts distributing into strength.
| Price zone | Seller cohort | Size / signal | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~$77K–$78K | Recently accumulated BTC now in profit | 68% of supply in profit, up from 65% in May | Roughly 600K more BTC can now be sold at a gain |
| ~$71K | Short-term holder cost basis | Current STH cost basis | Break below here risks turning recent buyers defensive |
| $83K–$86K | Long-term holders nearing breakeven | Roughly 1.05M BTC in the band | Patient holders get a chance to exit whole |
| $62K–$65K | Deeper accumulation floor | Glassnode lower support zone | Bear-case retest if demand fails |
Bitcoin ETFs funded the squeeze at limited trading depth
US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in a seven-day average of $290 million per day during August’s rally, real capital that helped drive Bitcoin’s move toward $80,000.
Secondary-market turnover on those same ETFs stayed closer to $3 billion per day throughout, a level Glassnode describes as well below prior expansionary phases.
What remains for this rally is broad trading activity that typically accompanies a durable move higher.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted roughly $236 million of outflows this week, led mostly by IBIT, as Bitcoin slid back toward $77,000. One outflow day marks the first live test of whether ETF demand can keep absorbing supply now that the profit overhang has expanded.
| ETF metric | Figure | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Peak seven-day average intake during August rally | $290M/day | Real spot demand helped fund the move |
| Secondary-market ETF turnover | ~$3B/day | Below prior expansionary phases |
| Latest reported ETF flow | ~$236M outflow | First sign demand is being tested again |
| Key market question | Can ETFs absorb profitable supply? | Flows need to offset selling from both recent buyers and LTHs |
The macro backdrop that fueled August has inverted
Treasury’s Aug. 19 buyback announcement briefly pulled the 10-year yield toward 4.6%, part of the relief that helped launch Bitcoin’s move.
The yield sat back near 4.8% eight trading sessions later, erasing that relief. Brent crude has since settled around $95.63 as fighting between the US and Iran resumes.
A global bond selloff has pushed sovereign yields broadly higher, and futures markets now assign roughly two-thirds odds to a September Fed rate hike. Higher yields and oil prices raise the bar for whatever buyer shows up next to absorb the supply already sitting in profit.
The August jobs report lands on Sept. 4, followed by CPI on Sept. 11 and the Fed’s meeting Sept. 15 to 16. A quarterly options expiry follows on Sept. 25, carrying roughly $14 billion of open interest across Deribit and IBIT, with a meaningful share of that positioning clustered above $80,000.
Bitcoin enters that sequence with more profitable supply above the current price than the last time it traded at this level.
It all comes down to fresh demand
The bull case has the jobs report and easing CPI lower the odds of a Fed hike, while ETF flows turn positive again, letting Bitcoin close above the $83,000 to $86,000 long-term holder band.
Under that path, the profit overhang gets absorbed cleanly, and Bitcoin opens a path toward the upper end of the options-implied range near $89,700, with September’s four tests read afterward as confirmation.
The bear case has stronger jobs or inflation data reinforcing hike expectations while ETF outflows continue, leaving recent buyers more inclined to defend their gains than add fresh capital.
| Scenario | Macro setup | Demand signal | BTC implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | Jobs/CPI cool hike risk; yields ease | ETF flows turn positive and turnover expands | BTC clears $83K–$86K and targets the options-implied upper range near $89.7K |
| Base case | Macro remains tight but not worse | ETFs alternate between inflows and outflows | BTC ranges between $71K and $83K–$86K |
| Bear case | Jobs/inflation reinforce hike risk; yields stay high | ETF outflows persist; recent buyers protect gains | BTC loses $71K and retests $62K–$65K |
| Core variable | Higher oil, higher yields, Fed risk | Fresh marginal buyer | Determines whether profitable holders sell or stay put |
In that scenario, Bitcoin loses the $71,000 short-term holder cost basis and tests Glassnode’s deeper accumulation floor near $62,000 to $65,000. The same summer buyers who steadied the market become the ones selling into any bounce.
Bitcoin needs enough new buyers to show up so people already sitting on gains can stay put.
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