Bitcoin slips below $86k as ETF outflows cap recovery efforts

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin has dropped below $86,000 on Tuesday after gaining more than 12% across three consecutive positive weeks.
• U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $90 million following last week’s massive inflow. 
• Resistance stands at $87,599 and near $90,000, while $85,000 remains immediate support.

Bitcoin consolidates after three weeks of gains

Bitcoin held below $86,000 on Tuesday, preserving a recovery of more than 12% since mid-September as ETF demand and shifting interest-rate expectations supported sentiment.

The cryptocurrency has recorded three consecutive weekly gains and is approaching resistance that could determine whether buyers extend the advance toward $90,000.

Its technical structure remains constructive across daily and weekly charts. However, some daily momentum readings have moderated, suggesting consolidation near recent highs rather than an uninterrupted climb.

Holding the nearby $85,000 support level would help preserve that bullish structure. A break below it would increase the possibility of a deeper correction.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.09 million in net inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data.

The result marked a third consecutive positive week, showing that demand through these products continued alongside bitcoin’s price recovery.

However, the week began negatively, with the funds recording an outflow of $90 million on Monday. 

Repeated inflows provide a supportive backdrop, although they do not guarantee further gains. Their significance will depend on whether buying persists and how it compares with selling elsewhere in the market.

An acceleration in inflows would strengthen the demand picture as bitcoin approaches overhead resistance. Conversely, weaker flows could leave the recovery more dependent on other buyers.

For now, ETF activity remains one of the factors supporting the recent advance.

Weak payrolls reduce October hike expectations

Investors also scaled back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase after Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report.

September nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, falling short of the expected 90,000 increase. August’s gain was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000.

Following the report, CME FedWatch placed the probability of an October rate hike at 18.3% on Monday, down from approximately 70% the previous week.

Reduced expectations for tightening can support risk assets by easing concerns about more restrictive financial conditions.

However, lower hike odds are not a promise of easier policy. They reflect market pricing that can change as additional economic data becomes available.

Bitcoin technical forecast: Weekly resistance stands between BTC and $90,000

On the weekly chart, bitcoin faces initial resistance at $87,599, the 50% retracement between the August 2024 low of $49,000 and the October 2025 record high of $126,199.

A successful close above that level would bring the 100-week simple moving average at approximately $89,832 into focus, followed by the psychological $90,000 threshold.

Weekly momentum supports the recovery. The Relative Strength Index is around 62 and rising, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows expanding positive histogram bars.

If resistance holds and a broader correction develops, the cited downside references include the $78,490 Fibonacci level and the 50-day SMA near $77,201.

The daily chart shows bitcoin above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, reinforcing the near-term bullish bias.

The daily RSI stands near 67, indicating strong momentum just below conventional overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has eased toward zero, suggesting upward pressure is slowing.

Immediate support lies at $85,000. A daily close below that floor would weaken the consolidation structure and expose the 50-day EMA near $79,189.

Further below, the 100-day EMA at $75,367 and the 200-day EMA near $74,994 form a deeper support area. More distant horizontal levels sit at $66,500 and $62,300.

Bitcoin’s recovery remains intact, but clearing $87,599 would provide stronger confirmation that buyers can carry the move toward $90,000.