President Donald Trump waived new Russia-linked duties in an October 16 order, keeping those additional tariffs from applying as October 18 arrives. The date is a condition for targeting certain countries over new Russian-energy purchases; the waiver changes one potential inflation and financing-cost risk for Bitcoin.
The order implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. It specifies additional duties of 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from two country groups: the five largest Russian oil and gas importers that knowingly make new purchases on or after October 18, and the top five facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion. Exceptions apply, and the same order waives the duties.
The waivers have no fixed expiry. They remain effective until the president or secretary of state determines further action is appropriate, consulting the Treasury secretary and US trade representative as appropriate.
Earlier sanctions also survive within the order’s specified scope. It preserves measures under executive orders addressing the Russian harmful-foreign-activities emergency as they stood immediately before the act’s enactment, including measures against persons already sanctioned under those orders.
CryptoSlate’s September 19 report framed October 18 as an implementation test and identified waivers as a possible limit on the shock. The administration has now exercised that authority, leaving future waiver decisions as the next policy trigger.
The order names no countries in the two groups. It directs the US trade representative and other officials to monitor Russian energy purchases and sanctions-evasion facilitation, including circumstances that could warrant action on the waivers.
Bitcoin’s inflation and funding-cost channel
Keeping the new duties waived could limit an additional tariff and energy-inflation shock, easing one potential source of pressure for tighter financing conditions. That could ease one source of funding pressure on Bitcoin.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s October 8 speech illustrates that constraint. He cited elevated energy costs and threatened new tariffs among persistent inflation pressures, and anticipated further interest-rate increases if incoming data continued as expected. These were his own views, delivered eight days before the waiver.
The connection to crypto comes through financial conditions. Researchers in BIS Working Paper 1219, published in October 2024, found that US monetary-policy tightening weakened crypto prices and reduced stablecoin market capitalization, while prime money market fund assets rose. Their findings support a general channel from US policy into crypto demand and liquidity.
The signals to watch are changes to the waivers and whether renewed trade pressure reaches energy prices, inflation expectations or financing conditions.
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