Portugal orders Polymarket to shut down over election betting surge

• Portugal prohibits political betting under its 2015 online gambling law.
• Polymarket remains accessible, but regulators may ask ISPs to block it.
• Polymarket faces restrictions in 30+ countries, with access limits varying by market.

Portugal’s gambling regulator has ordered blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket to cease operations in the country within 48 hours after the platform saw a sharp spike in activity linked to Sunday’s presidential election.

According to Rádio Renascença, bets placed on the outcome of the Jan. 18 vote exceeded 103 million euros ($120 million).

The regulator, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeição de Jogos (SRIJ), said Polymarket does not hold a licence to offer betting services in Portugal and is therefore operating illegally.

The enforcement step highlights how prediction markets are increasingly colliding with national gambling laws, particularly when political events drive rapid inflows of user activity and large volumes of capital.

A fast-growing prediction market meets strict local gambling rules

Polymarket is a prediction market that lets users bet on real-world events such as politics, sports, or other developments by buying shares tied to potential outcomes.

In Portugal, betting on political events and other real-world outcomes is illegal.

Under the country’s 2015 online gambling law, betting is permitted only on sports, casino games, and horse racing.

SRIJ said Polymarket is not authorised to offer betting services in Portugal and cannot legally operate political markets, whether they relate to domestic events or international developments.

The regulator’s 48-hour deadline and what could come next

The regulator’s decision was tied to the surge in election-related betting, with activity around the Portuguese presidential race drawing increased attention.

SRIJ formally ordered Polymarket to quit the country within 48 hours.

However, the platform remains accessible for now, though regulators may soon instruct internet service providers to block access.

Other prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless, also appear to be accessible in Portugal, even as authorities focus specifically on Polymarket’s licensing status and its political betting markets.

Election-related volume draws fresh scrutiny

The size of the wagering linked to the Jan. 18 vote has put the spotlight on how quickly liquidity can concentrate on political markets.

Rádio Renascença reported that bets exceeded 103 million euros ($120 million), underscoring the scale of the activity on Polymarket tied to Portugal’s presidential election.

Such volumes can draw regulator attention faster than smaller niche markets, especially in jurisdictions where political betting is explicitly restricted.

Polymarket faces bans in 30+ countries

Polymarket was founded in 2020 and has already faced restrictions in more than 30 countries, including Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy, and, more recently, Ukraine.

Regulatory approaches vary by jurisdiction. Some countries, such as Belgium, have blacklisted the website.

Others, including France, have limited access so that local users can enter the platform in a “view-only” mode rather than actively participate.

Portugal’s enforcement action adds to that growing list and shows how legal pressure on prediction markets can escalate quickly when platforms gain traction around elections.