Bitcoin stalls while tokenized gold sees a rise in whale interest

Crypto whales are reaching for gold as Bitcoin stalls, but the trade may be less of a verdict on crypto than a hedge for a specific macro window.

On Jan. 27, blockchain sleuth Lookonchain flagged three addresses that collectively withdrew about $14.33 million in tokenized gold from centralized exchanges, including Bybit, Gate, and MEXC.

The firm reported that one wallet pulled 1,959 XAUT, valued at $9.97 million, and another withdrew 559 XAUT, worth around $2.83 million. The last wallet removed 194.4 XAUT, worth $0.993 million, and 106.2 PAXG, worth about $0.538 million.

While these assets are tokenized claims that track the gold price rather than a confirmed move into physical delivery, the flow shows safe-haven positioning being expressed through crypto settlement rails.

Notably, the timing of these purchases matches a sharp divergence in hard assets.

Spot gold has held above $5,000 an ounce after a surge that has pulled in defensive capital. On the other hand, Bitcoin has slowed to a grind and is trading in a tight band even as the broader “distrust trade” stays alive.

According to CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin’s price is up a meager 0.28% since the beginning of the year, to around $88,125 as of press time.

So, the simple read of the whale’s actions is that they are de-risking. However, the more consequential read is sequencing: gold first during stress, and Bitcoin later if the macro impulse turns from panic protection to debasement positioning.

Tokenized gold becomes crypto’s fast hedge

Gold demand can show up in many places, but tokenized gold demand matters because it shows up inside crypto’s plumbing in instruments that trade around the clock and settle like any other token.

For crypto-native investors, that is the appeal. They do not need to exit the ecosystem, wire cash, and wait. They can buy on-chain gold exposure and move it using familiar custody patterns, often on the same rails they use for Bitcoin.

That is also why exchange withdrawals carry informational weight. When large holders pull XAUT or PAXG off venues, it often signals custody intent and duration rather than a quick scalp.

Notably, gold’s rally has reinforced the behavior. Spot gold gained about 64% in 2025 and about 18% year to date into late January 2026, driven by safe-haven buying and central-bank demand.

The overlap with crypto is also appearing in reserve management. Stablecoin issuer Tether bought about 27 metric tons of gold in the fourth quarter of 2025 as part of the reserves that support its stablecoin products.

For a market that often talks about “trust minimization,” it is notable when the largest stablecoin issuer adds metal to the balance sheet. It normalizes gold as an internal hedge and settlement asset during drawdowns, especially when volatility spikes and traders still want to stay inside crypto rails.

Bitcoin’s stall is being driven by flows

Bitcoin’s slowdown has looked more like a positioning and flows problem than a thesis problem.

In its Jan. 26 weekly note, Bitwise Europe reported weekly net outflows of $1.811 billion from global crypto ETPs, including $1.128 billion from Bitcoin products. Notably, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.324 billion over the same period.

Those redemptions matter because they hit the market where it is most sensitive: incremental demand. In a flow-driven market, price can sag even if longer-term conviction remains intact, especially when institutions stop adding risk and intermediaries pull back.

Derivatives pricing from the same data set points in the same direction. Bitwise noted a three-month annualized basis near 4.8% and a rise in options skew toward downside protection, a setup more consistent with risk management than crowded longs.

At the same time, the Crypto Fear and Greed index is back in fear after a short January rebound to greed.

Moreover, available data shows a Bitcoin “maximum pain” stress channel between $81,000 and $75,000, derived from ETF cost bases and realized price levels at which forced selling typically exhausts.

That range is part of how macro hedgers map downside when liquidity is thinning.

Put together, the data support a less dramatic interpretation of the gold flows.

Whales buying tokenized gold does not have to mean they are abandoning Bitcoin. It can mean they are hedging while waiting for a catalyst, particularly if ETF outflows keep capping upside.

The distrust trade can move in phases

Notably, gold’s bid has not been happening in isolation. It has been supported by geopolitical and policy uncertainty, persistent central bank buying, and ongoing debates over reserve diversification.

Data from Barchart shows that the precious metal has overtaken the US dollar as the largest global reserve asset.

This shift is consistent with the slow, structural argument for holding non-fiat stores of value. For some investors, that basket includes both bullion and Bitcoin, but not necessarily at the same time and not for the same reason.

In a fear phase, the preference often skews toward the asset with the longest history and lower volatility (gold). In a debasement or reflation phase, the preference can swing toward convexity (the ability to move faster when liquidity returns), and that is often where Bitcoin’s narrative becomes more powerful.

Consequently, Wall Street’s portfolio packaging is starting to formalize that relationship.

Crypto-focused asset management firm Bitwise and Proficio Capital Partners launched an ETF that groups gold, metals, and Bitcoin as alternatives to fiat exposure.

That kind of product framing can reinforce a sequencing pattern already visible in flows: gold first as a hedge that holds up in risk-off conditions, Bitcoin later when liquidity appetite returns and ETF flows stabilize.

Why do some models say the next leg could favor BTC?

The “rotation back to BTC” argument rests on relative value and liquidity rather than on the idea that Bitcoin suddenly behaves like a traditional safe haven.

Bitwise Europe has been highlighting a framework that compares the BTC-to-gold ratio to measures of global money supply. The firm noted that the BTC-to-gold ratio is near a minus-2-standard-deviation extreme relative to the global money supply, a condition it compared with 2015.

Notably, the timing of this dislocation aligns with the historical cycle duration. Andre Dragosch, the head of research at the firm, noted that the average duration of a BTC/Gold bear market is around 14 months, and the market is currently 14 months into the cycle.

The implication is not that a rebound is guaranteed, but that dislocations between Bitcoin and liquidity can persist and then snap back when flows turn.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan suggests this setup is driven by a shared macro thesis that is currently expressing itself through gold first.

Hougan argued that gold’s spike signals that “years of money printing, debt, and debasement are catching up with fiat currencies,” prompting investors to seek wealth formats that do not rely on the “good graces of others.”

So, while gold captures the immediate safety trade, Hougan noted that BTC’s “self-custody” and “trustless” architecture are becoming “increasingly valuable” as faith in centralized institutions falls.

If that view holds, the disconnect between gold and Bitcoin may be a lag rather than a break.

Notably, industry experts are already pricing for that eventual reconnection, with price predictions pegging Bitcoin at above $125,000.

However, for that to happen, the market must witness a sustained turn from weekly ETF outflows to inflows, which would reduce flow drag and reopen the channel for demand-led price moves.

At the same time, a rebound in the BTC-to-gold ratio from the current extreme would signal that the rotation is active.

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