Avalanche price forecast as bears keep AVAX below key level

• Avalanche climbed above $9 as bulls mirrored broader gains.
• However, the altcoin remains in bearish momentum as the price hovers below a key level.
• Derivatives data and technical indicators offer a mixed outlook for the AVAX price.

Avalanche price continues to face headwinds as the token trades just above $9.00.

Despite slight gains after four consecutive days of downward action, AVAX price remains below the $10 mark as on-chain metrics and technical indicators show a mixed outlook.

The overall bearish price action and underlying crypto market sentiment favour sellers, particularly amid the unfolding geopolitical scenario.

Avalanche derivatives outlook

The derivatives market for Avalanche presents a conflicting picture that traders must navigate carefully.

On one hand, Avalanche futures Open Interest (OI) has fallen to $387 million, having declined steadily since mid-January.

Coinglass data shows OI is nearing the February low of $361 million, which could highlight a drop in investor confidence amid a broader bearish outlook.

Such a decline in open interest typically suggests that traders are closing positions rather than opening new ones, reflecting a cautious or bearish sentiment across the broader market.

However, a closer look at the funding rates tells a different story. The funding rate for AVAX turned positive on Monday after hitting -0.0153% on March 6.

While it is not steady amid recent price declines, it currently hovers around 0.0070%.

A positive funding rate indicates that long positions are paying shorts.

Often, this suggests that despite the falling price, a segment of the market remains bullish and is willing to pay a premium to hold long positions.

This divergence of a falling open interest and positive funding suggests that while overall participation is down, the remaining leveraged traders are optimistic of a notable rebound.

Avalanche price forecast

The technical picture for Avalanche indicates that the region around the $8.63 and $8.10 levels provides a crucial support zone.

AVAX has bounced off this area multiple times in the past two months, with bulls setting the lower boundary of the range as a key level on Feb 6 and on Feb 26.

However, the bulls have failed to go higher amid supply wall rejection below $10.

Avalanche’s price has declined by more than 26% year-to-date.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 46, which is below the neutral 50 level.

However, it’s upturned to indicate that bulls could reclaim traction.

Also notably, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator features a bullish crossover whose upside bias has not yet been invalidated.

As of Monday morning, AVAX traded at $9.08, hovering just above the critical support zone.

Should the market sentiment shift and buyers step in, a recovery to above $11 could bring the next level of $14 into play.

If the bearish momentum outlook picks up fresh momentum, the token’s value could test the February 6 low of $7.53.