XRP nears $1.30 as 41% holder losses signal capitulation risk

• XRP price dropped to near $1.30 on Tuesday, April 7, 2027.
• Santiment data showed holder returns have dipped by 41% over the past year.
• Bulls need to reclaim $1.35, but sellers may be eyeing $1.10.

XRP faces fresh downside pressure amid an intraday dip to near $1.30, with the overall picture exacerbated by the broader cryptocurrency market weakness.

Notably, the Ripple-linked token’s slide comes as on-chain metrics reveal stark underperformance for holders, with average returns plummeting 41% over the past year.

Analysts say that while the surge in underwater wallets signals potential capitulation, it echoes past market patterns that have ended with a sharp bounce.

XRP Ledger returns down 41%

Data from analytics platform Santiment has noted that wallets active on the XRP Ledger have slipped into significant loss over the past 12 months.

XRP holders are nursing an average loss of -41% on their investments, the firm posted on X.

The average loss marks one of the most severe drawdowns in active recent history.

This figure stems from the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a key indicator that compares current market prices to the average cost basis of holders.

Santiment’s on-chain analysis shows XRP’s MVRV hitting its lowest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when the exchange’s implosion triggered widespread panic selling across crypto markets.

Back then, XRP’s MVRV plunged into deeply negative territory, reflecting widespread unrealized losses as traders offloaded positions at fire-sale prices.

Today’s reading mirrors that despair, with the metric signaling that the average XRP holder is far underwater.

XRP price outlook

This 41% dip in returns highlights that a growing number of wallets are unprofitable, which means pressure on short-term traders.

XRP is now changing hands near $1.32, slightly up on the day after the latest altcoin dip. However, daily trading volume, down 14% to around $1.6 billion, suggests prevailing weakness.

The failed breakout above $1.40 earlier this week injected fresh jitters, leaving sellers in control.

On the technical charts, XRP struggles below the 50-day exponential moving average. The RSI indicates fresh losses towards oversold conditions.

However, such a scenario could spark a rebound.

A decisive uptick above $1.35 might embolden bulls to target higher resistance at $1.50, with 200-day EMA above $1.80.

Santiment shared their take via X:

“Because cryptocurrencies are zero-sum trading games, significantly negative average returns (not just a price drop, but actual trader returns) imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding on to your $XRP positions, due to the fact that competing traders are already in severe ‘blood in the streets’ territory.”

If price swings below $1.30 will mean buyers risk a deeper correction toward $1.10.