Bitcoin dips below $63K amid ETF outflows and geopolitical risks

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin is trading below $64,000 after rallying more than 6% last week.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $526.64 million in net outflows, marking an eighth consecutive week of withdrawals.
• Renewed geopolitical concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are limiting demand for risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly lower on Monday after climbing more than 6% last week, with buyers struggling to push the cryptocurrency above the key $64,000 resistance level.

Although last week’s rebound improved short-term sentiment, persistent institutional selling and renewed geopolitical uncertainty continue to cap upside momentum.

For now, Bitcoin remains caught between improving technical conditions and cautious macroeconomic sentiment.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs extend historic outflow streak

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains under pressure. According to CoinGlass data, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $526.64 million in net outflows during the previous week.

The withdrawals mark the eighth consecutive week of net redemptions, extending the longest outflow streak since spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading.

If institutional investors continue reducing exposure this week, Bitcoin could face renewed selling pressure despite last week’s rebound.

Global geopolitical uncertainty remains another obstacle for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency rallied last week after easing tensions between the United States and Iran briefly improved investor sentiment.

However, optimism has faded as concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced.

Reports that Iran may introduce new service fees for vessels passing through the strategically important shipping route have renewed uncertainty, while the United States and several Gulf allies continue opposing such measures.

The lingering geopolitical risks have kept investors cautious, limiting demand for higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin price outlook: Bulls defend long-term support

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to trade above a critical long-term support level.

Last week’s rally allowed BTC to reclaim the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62,867 after bouncing from an ascending trendline that has supported prices since early 2023.

Holding above this level keeps the broader recovery intact. If buyers maintain control above the 200-week SMA, Bitcoin could extend its advance toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,520, measured from the August 2024 low to the October 2025 record high.

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trade below its major moving averages. The cryptocurrency remains beneath the 50-day EMA at $65,744, the 100-day EMA at $69,455, and the 200-day EMA at $75,471, leaving the broader trend tilted to the downside despite recent gains.

Immediate resistance is located around $64,004. A successful breakout above that level could allow Bitcoin to challenge the 50-day EMA, with additional upside targets at the 100-day EMA, the 200-day EMA, and eventually the major resistance area near $84,410.

While momentum has improved, the daily RSI near 49 and a positive MACD crossover indicate buyers are gradually regaining strength, although confirmation of a sustained uptrend is still lacking.

The 200-week SMA at $62,867 remains the most important support level in the near term.

A sustained move below that area would weaken the current recovery and expose the long-term ascending trendline near $58,000. If selling pressure intensifies further, Bitcoin could revisit its yearly low around $57,800.

Bitcoin has recovered significantly from recent lows, but the rally is encountering resistance just below $64,000.

Persistent ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and overhead technical resistance continue to limit upside potential.

As long as BTC holds above its 200-week SMA, the recovery remains intact. However, buyers will need to reclaim $64,004 and then $65,744 to build momentum for a broader move higher.