Bitcoin could drop below $63k as market structure remains volatile

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $64,000 despite improving derivatives data.
• Analysts at QCP note that July has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, averaging gains of around 7.5%.
• Glassnode says Bitcoin is showing signs of structural stabilization, with spot selling pressure easing significantly.

Bitcoin (BTC) started July on firmer footing, recovering above the $63,000 level as improving derivatives positioning and easing selling pressure helped stabilize the cryptocurrency market.

The rebound follows several weeks of volatility and comes as analysts point to historically favorable seasonal trends, strengthening technical conditions, and improving institutional flows as factors supporting Bitcoin’s recovery.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $63,190, up approximately 0.6% over the past 24 hours.

July seasonality favors Bitcoin bulls

Analysts at crypto trading firm QCP noted that Bitcoin’s early-July recovery aligns with historical market patterns.

According to the firm, July has traditionally been one of Bitcoin’s strongest-performing months, delivering average returns of roughly 7.5%.

QCP added that lighter trading volumes during the U.S. Independence Day holiday helped preserve the bullish momentum that emerged after softer-than-expected U.S. labor market data eased pressure on risk assets.

The firm also observed that stress across Bitcoin’s derivatives market has begun to ease.

Recent derivatives data suggests traders are becoming less defensive. QCP highlighted several encouraging developments:

• Implied volatility continues to trend lower.
• Near-term put option skew has moderated after rising sharply during the recent market decline.
• Traders have shown notable interest in $70,000 call options expiring at the end of July, indicating expectations for additional upside.

However, optimism remains measured.

The firm also pointed to ongoing demand for $58,000 put options expiring later this year, reflecting concerns among some investors that Bitcoin’s current rebound could resemble the temporary recovery seen during the 2022 bear market before prices resumed their decline.

Bitcoin price forecast: BTC could drop below $63,000

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish and efficient following last week’s rally. The momentum indicators suggest that the market is currently consolidating.

The RSI of 55 means that neither the buyers nor the sellers are in control. The MACD lines are also in the neutral zone, reinforcing the current bias.

If the bearish trend resumes, BTC could slip below the $63,000 level and test the 4-hour TLQ at $61,365. 

However, if the bulls regain control, Bitcoin could surge past the $64,000 barrier and retest the June 15 high of $67,125.