- US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, the largest one-month decrease since April 2020, taking annual inflation to 3.5% from 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 14.
- Bitcoin traded near US$64,700 (AU$93,218), up about 3.5% in 24 hours, while Ether outperformed at about US$1,875 (AU$2,700), up roughly 5.2%, according to CoinGecko data.
- Markets price roughly 80% odds the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% on July 28–29, and 21Shares strategist Matt Mena flagged a possible US$100,000 (AU$144,000) push by quarter-end.
Bitcoin climbed above US$64,000 (AU$92,160) on Tuesday after US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, the largest one-month decrease since April 2020, firming market bets that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its July 28–29 meeting.
June’s decline followed a 0.5% rise in May, and economists had expected a smaller dip, according to consensus estimates cited in market coverage.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the energy index fell 5.7% over the month, its steepest one-month decline since April 2020, with gasoline down 9.7%. Energy was the largest contributor to the fall, more than offsetting increases in shelter and food.
Annual inflation eased to 3.5% from 4.2% a month earlier, and core prices, which exclude food and energy, were flat on the month and up 2.6% over the year, down from 2.9%.
Bitcoin traded near US$64,700 (AU$93,218) at the time of writing, up about 3.5% in 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Ether outperformed, changing hands near US$1,875 (AU$2,700), a gain of roughly 5.2%.
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Fed Pause Odds Firm
The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% since late 2025, and its June projections pencilled in a median end-2026 rate of 3.8%, implying at least one hike this year. Nine of the meeting’s 18 participants saw at least one increase in 2026, against eight expecting no change and one projecting a cut. After the June print, market pricing put roughly 80% odds on rates staying unchanged at the July 28–29 meeting, per CME FedWatch data cited in market coverage.
Sygnum chief investment officer Fabian Dori characterised the report as “the first real indication that the energy-driven impulse from the spring is fading”. Energy prices remain 15.7% higher than a year earlier, with gasoline up 26.7% over the same period, the Bureau’s data showed.
Shelter costs rose 0.1% in June, the smallest monthly increase for that index since January 2021, and the food index added 0.2% on the month and 3.0% over the year.
Read more: Bitcoin’s “Mildest” Bear Market Yet: Analysts Split on Timing as Rebound Signals Recovery, Not Reversal
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