Bitcoin trailed the Nasdaq 100 by 68 percentage points over the past year, and it has spent the last 60 days turning that deficit into a five-point lead.
According to Glassnode’s cross-asset return table, Bitcoin fell 44% over the past twelve months while the Nasdaq climbed 24%, making crypto the only asset group in the sample still sitting in negative territory.
Over the last 60 days, Bitcoin gained 2% while the Nasdaq lost 3%, a 73-point swing in relative performance from where the two stood a year earlier.
Ethereum and Solana are outrunning it
Ethereum and Solana are showing the same reversal, but more sharply. Both lost more than Bitcoin over the past year, down 56% and 58% respectively, yet both gained more over the last 60 days, up 12% and 10%.
That puts Ethereum 15 points above the Nasdaq over that window and Solana 13 points above it.
The same pattern shows up at shorter horizons, where Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana all posted gains over both 14 days and seven days while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell in the same stretches.
Glassnode CTO Rafael Schultze-Kraft captured the reversal in a single social post, describing crypto as slowly starting to hold its own against stocks and looking better over the past two months.
| Asset | 1-year return | 1-year spread vs Nasdaq | 60-day return | 60-day spread vs Nasdaq | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | -44% | -68 pts | +2% | +5 pts | From major laggard to slight leader |
| Ethereum | -56% | -80 pts | +12% | +15 pts | Sharpest short-term rebound |
| Solana | -58% | -82 pts | +10% | +13 pts | Deepest 1-year loss, strong 60-day recovery |
| Nasdaq 100 | +24% | — | -3% | — | Momentum advantage faded |
Where the speculative dollar had been going
NYDIG’s Aug. 14 research argued that crypto trading demand weakened as the menu of competing speculative bets expanded. A trader chasing 5x or 10x payoffs can now split that appetite across Bitcoin, Nvidia, gold, equity perpetuals, zero-day options, sports event contracts and prediction markets.
That framework explains Bitcoin’s one-year column, since other high-convexity trades were moving more and pulling attention and capital away from crypto.
Investors shifted toward AI stocks and mega-cap IPOs in June, while semiconductor shares surged roughly 170% over the same stretch and Bitcoin fell about 40%.
BlackRock’s digital assets head, Robert Mitchnick, pointed to the turn directly in August, saying Bitcoin significantly outperformed during July’s pullback in AI stocks. He called the widening decoupling from equities a constructive sign for Bitcoin’s role as a diversifier.
Glassnode’s multi-horizon table shows a one-year column still carrying the damage from a rough stretch, while the 60-day, 14-day and seven-day columns now tell a genuinely different story.
| Competing bet | Why it pulled attention from crypto | What would weaken its grip |
|---|---|---|
| AI and semiconductor stocks | Delivered stronger momentum than Bitcoin over the past year | Slower earnings momentum or valuation fatigue |
| Mega-cap IPOs | Offered fresh high-growth equity exposure | Weak post-listing performance |
| Gold and silver | Gave investors strong returns with macro/hedge narratives | Lower safe-haven demand or crowded positioning |
| Zero-day options and equity derivatives | Offered short-term convexity outside crypto | Lower volatility or tighter risk limits |
| Prediction markets and event contracts | Created new speculative outlets | Lower liquidity or regulatory constraints |
| Bitcoin and crypto | Lost the one-year momentum trade but regained relative strength over 60 days | Needs ETF and spot-flow confirmation |
Whether the money has followed
Glassnode flagged that gap six days earlier, saying Bitcoin had been left out of the broader asset rotation, with spot activity still weak and no convincing return of institutional flows. The firm said any real turn should show up first in ETF flows.
Its Aug. 17 update stayed just as cautious: Bitcoin was near $63,600, spot liquidity remained thin, and ETFs posted outflows even as capital flows began to stabilize. Glassnode described conviction as still limited.
Farside Investors tracked roughly $385 million in net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs between Aug. 10 and Aug. 14, followed by about $487 million of inflows on Aug. 17 and Aug. 18.
That leaves August with roughly $967 million in net inflows through Aug. 18, though the path getting there looks choppy.
The strongest way to read this reversal is narrower than a comeback story: Bitcoin only needs equities to stop monopolizing momentum, a much smaller ask than an outright equity collapse.
A genuine equity crash could work against Bitcoin, since broad liquidity stress tends to pull investors into selling risk assets together, crypto included.
The more useful environment is the one Glassnode’s chart may be starting to show, where equities keep performing reasonably well but stop delivering overwhelmingly superior returns, and crypto starts offering competitive momentum again.
That gives the marginal speculative dollar a reason to reconsider Bitcoin.
What confirms the turn and what unwinds it
The bull case has Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana continuing to outperform US equity indexes while ETF inflows turn consistently positive and spot volumes recover alongside them.
That combination would give speculative investors a reason to reallocate toward crypto, since equities no longer offer the cleaner momentum trade they did a year ago.
| Signal to watch | Bull-case reading | Bear-case reading |
|---|---|---|
| BTC vs Nasdaq 60-day spread | Bitcoin keeps leading the Nasdaq | Nasdaq regains leadership |
| ETH and SOL participation | Alt majors also outperform equities | BTC holds up alone while ETH/SOL fade |
| Spot Bitcoin ETF flows | Multi-week inflow streaks return | Outflows resume or inflows stay choppy |
| Spot trading volume | Liquidity and participation recover | Volumes remain thin |
| AI/semi momentum | Cools without triggering broad market stress | Reaccelerates and absorbs speculative capital again |
| Bitcoin price behavior | Builds momentum beyond the low-to-mid $60,000s | Remains range-bound despite relative improvement |
The bear case has the 60-day improvement fading as quickly as it arrived. The Nasdaq and AI leaders regain their footing, ETF flows weaken again, and Bitcoin settles back into a range near the low-to-mid $60,000s. Under that path, Glassnode’s table marks a pause inside the old regime.
Bitcoin spent the past year proving it could lose the momentum trade badly. The past 60 days have only proven it can compete for it again, though a lasting rotation of capital still depends on convincing ETF and spot flows.
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