XRP jumped roughly 22% in 24 hours, trading near $1.26 and clearing the level CryptoSlate had flagged in July as the upside target of its breakout setup.
That July framework had put $1.18 as the breakout line, with open interest surging as traders positioned for the move.
XRP has now cleared the $1.26 shelf that framework was built around, pushing the market question above $1.26 and onto higher levels on the chart.
The liquidation ladder is pointing toward $1.38
Fresh Hyperliquid positioning data shows cumulative short liquidations around $607,000 at $1.28, climbing to about $1.4 million at $1.32, and reaching roughly $2.2 million at $1.38, about 9.5% above current spot.
A leveraged short position profits when price falls, so when exchanges forcibly close a short during a rally, the trader has to buy the asset back to exit. That buying happens whether the trader wants it or not, and it can add real demand to an already climbing move.
CoinGlass describes this as a cascading pattern during sharp price swings, where each liquidated position can feed the next.
Hyperliquid’s XRP open interest sits around $116.4 million, with total short-liquidation exposure across all price levels at $49.5 million. The $2.2 million exposed by $1.38 equals only about 4.4% of that total, large enough to influence near-term positioning without guaranteeing the rally continues.
Funding remained moderately positive at 0.0100% over eight hours, a bullish tilt that falls short of the kind of crowded, euphoric reading that usually precedes a sharp reversal.
| XRP price level | Distance from ~$1.26 spot | Liquidation pressure | Market implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.38 | +9.5% | ~$2.2M shorts | Main short-squeeze target |
| $1.32 | +4.8% | ~$1.4M shorts | Midpoint continuation level |
| $1.28 | +1.6% | ~$607K shorts | First upside trigger |
| ~$1.26 | Spot | — | Current reference level |
| $1.23 | -2.4% | ~$85K longs | Early downside warning |
| $1.19 | -5.6% | ~$525K longs | Failed-squeeze risk |
| $1.13 | -10.3% | ~$2.1M longs | Long-liquidation mirror zone |
$1.40 to $1.50 is the real test
Traders have identified $1.40 to $1.50 as XRP’s bigger structural resistance zone for months, the level needed to turn the broader chart decisively bullish, well past a simple recovery from its most recent slide.
Only a sustained move through that would turn the current rally into something bigger than a short-covering bounce.
A pullback to $1.19 would expose about $525,000 of cumulative long liquidations on Hyperliquid. A full reversal to $1.13, roughly 10.3% below current spot, would push that figure to about $2.1 million, almost a mirror image of the climb toward $1.38.
Santiment tracked roughly 1.1% of circulating XRP supply moving on Aug. 17, once sitting untouched for an average of 518.95 days, about 25 times normal dormant-supply activity. Exchange volume did not spike alongside that movement, a pattern consistent with wallet-to-wallet transfers so far.
| Zone | Level | What it signals | Article framing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extension target | $1.60–$1.73 | Only relevant if $1.40–$1.50 confirms | Not the base case |
| Breakout test | $1.40–$1.50 | Higher-timeframe resistance | Decides whether squeeze becomes breakout |
| Squeeze target | $1.38 | Largest near-term short-liq cluster cited | Immediate upside objective |
| Current area | ~$1.26 | Old upside target now cleared | New setup begins here |
| Breakdown risk | $1.19 | Long liquidations rise | Failed-squeeze confirmation |
| Full reversal risk | $1.13 | Long liquidations approach upside mirror | Bear-case acceleration |
Santiment is also watching a separate 49 million XRP block still sitting in an unidentified wallet, after a Ripple-linked operational address moved 50 million XRP on Aug. 13, with 1 million of that going to a Binance-linked address.
If the remaining 49 million XRP moves toward an exchange, dormant supply becomes active selling when the squeeze needs continued demand to keep climbing.
Whether the squeeze becomes a breakout
Bitcoin registered an intraday high of $72,966 on Aug. 20, once the US Treasury moved to double its buyback size for long-duration debt. The move was tied to relief across risk assets, arriving on the heels of a bond selloff that had pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007.
Part of the broader crypto rally also stemmed from short-covering after a stretch of narrow trading ended, the same mechanic driving XRP’s squeeze.
The dollar has softened too, with the DXY near 98.90 on Aug. 20, down 2.24% over the prior month, though the Fed backdrop stays mixed. The July FOMC minutes showed officials holding the funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three dissenting in favor of a hike.
The bull case has XRP clearing $1.38 and continuing to absorb supply into the $1.40 to $1.50 zone, converting the short squeeze into a break of XRP’s larger resistance band.
Some traders have floated $1.60 to $1.73 as follow-on targets, though only if the structure confirms first. That confirmation still has to happen at $1.40 to $1.50 before those higher levels become relevant.
The bear case has XRP losing $1.28 to $1.32 and failing to hold the squeeze, sending price back toward $1.19 and then $1.13. Long liquidations take over from the short-liquidation ladder that pushed price up in the first place.
| Scenario | Trigger | What supports it | What breaks it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull breakout | XRP clears $1.38, then sustains $1.40–$1.50 | Forced short-covering, positive funding, broader crypto risk rally | Dormant XRP moves to exchanges or price rejects resistance |
| Base squeeze | XRP trades through $1.28–$1.32 and tests $1.38 | Liquidation ladder adds buying pressure | Momentum fades before $1.38 |
| Bear reversal | XRP loses $1.28–$1.32 and heads toward $1.19 | Late longs become exposed; long liquidations build | Buyers defend spot and prevent cascade |
| Supply shock | 49M XRP block moves toward an exchange | Dormant supply becomes active sell-side risk | Wallet remains inactive or avoids exchanges |
Dormant XRP reaching an exchange would compound that move, turning Santiment’s watch-list wallet from a background risk into an active source of selling right as the market needs buyers.
XRP has already cleared the target that defined its last recovery. What happens between $1.26 and $1.50 now depends on whether forced short-covering can outlast the supply sitting one wallet transfer away from an exchange.
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