Arthur Hayes exits Maelstrom’s crypto trading positions

Arthur Hayes has exited Maelstrom’s directional crypto positions, and on-chain analysts are tracking about $26 million in token sales.

In an Oct. 24 statement, Hayes said he had taken profits on Ethereum (ETH), Ethena (ENA), Uniswap (UNI), and other cryptocurrencies, citing mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The decision follows blockchain analytics firm Santiment’s Oct. 23 report of Ethereum’s largest daily net exchange outflow in more than four months, a pattern it compared with a June local bottom.

Hayes abandons bullish Ethereum positions amid market uncertainty

On-chain analyst EmberCN reported that Hayes sold about $26 million in cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total.

The transactions included 8,000 ETH worth approximately $19 million, 14 million ENA valued at $3 million, and 323,000 UNI worth $2 million.

Additional disposals involved 1,890,000 Ether.fi (ETHFI) tokens valued at $1 million, 547,000 Aerodrome Finance (AERO) tokens worth $400,000, 120,000 Pendle (PENDLE) tokens valued at $240,000, and 3 million Zama (ZAMA) tokens worth $210,000.

Hayes described the trades as profit-taking; the dollar estimates come from EmberCN.

“I think we gotta go down to go up,” he wrote, adding that conditions looked uncertain across the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape.

He said he would remain on the sidelines until market conditions provided a clearer signal to resume trading.

The decision represents a substantial shift from the bullish positioning Hayes outlined in September.

In his Sept. 2 investment outlook, the Maelstrom chief investment officer maintained a $10,000 year-end target for Ethereum, alongside price expectations of $0.5 for ENA and $2 for ETHFI.

Those forecasts depended heavily on his expectation that financial stress in Europe would eventually force the Federal Reserve to increase dollar liquidity, creating favorable conditions for cryptocurrency prices.

Hayes also described Bitcoin as Maelstrom’s structural long-term holding, while Ethereum and selected decentralized finance tokens represented more speculative positions.

His latest announcement indicates that he has abandoned those near-term directional bets, although it does not establish that Maelstrom liquidated its longer-term Bitcoin exposure or other investments.

The reversal comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 27–28 policy meeting, when investors will receive another indication of the central bank’s approach to interest rates and financial conditions.

Santiment flags Ethereum’s largest exchange outflow in four months

In an Oct. 23 analysis, Santiment reported that approximately 169,770 ETH had left exchanges on a net basis during a single day, the largest such withdrawal in more than four months.

Santiment interpreted the lower exchange balance as less immediately available supply for sellers, potentially easing selling pressure if demand stabilizes.

Santiment highlighted a comparable episode on June 5, when approximately 223,800 ETH left exchanges as Ethereum reached its lowest price since April 2025.

That earlier movement coincided with a local market bottom, after which the cryptocurrency staged a rapid recovery.

The analytics firm suggested the latest withdrawal spike could support another recovery, especially if outflows persist while Ethereum stays within its current trading range.

Transfers to private wallets, custody services, or staking arrangements can reduce exchange balances without necessarily representing fresh buying demand. Santiment’s Oct. 23 outflow report preceded Hayes’ Oct. 24 sales announcement.

Moreover, the withdrawals have emerged during a period of persistent weakness in Ethereum’s market performance.

Santiment identified $2,400 as the immediate pivot. It said a sustained move above $2,500 would strengthen its bottoming thesis, while a fall below roughly $2,330 would weaken it.