- JPMorgan analysts warned that US crypto regulations could be overturned following the 2028 presidential election without comprehensive market-structure legislation.
- The Clarity Act failed to advance after a 49–50 Senate vote, although Republican senators have suggested it could be revived after the mid-term elections.
- The CFTC is developing rules for leveraged crypto trading, while the OCC has finalised stablecoin regulations under the GENIUS Act, effective January 2027.
- The SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets framework has gained industry support, although several blockchain firms want stronger legal recognition of digital commodities.
US crypto regulation remains a hot topic, particularly following the failure to advance the Clarity Act in the Senate. Meanwhile, several US regulators have taken the initiative to advance regulations within their jurisdictions.
Now, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou have warned that without comprehensive market-structure legislation, such efforts could be reversed if the political landscape shifts.
In a report seen by The Block, the analysts said that “elevated political and legal risk premia are likely to persist until comprehensive market-structure legislation is eventually passed”.
Read more: Pet Rock No More? JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Outperforming Stocks and Gold
And this could happen following the 2028 presidential election, should Democrats take the reins.
For now, the crypto industry has to rely on a patchwork of regulatory actions that could be overturned in as soon as two years, if a Democrat wins the White House.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan SEC, CFTC and OCC Push Ahead as Congress Remains Deadlocked
The Clarity Act fell short of the 60 votes needed to advance, with a 49–50 vote back in September. Democrats had voiced objections over national security, illicit finance and ethics provisions. And one of the biggest sticking points was Trump’s crypto business interests, something Democrats were unwilling to compromise on.
Senator Kennedy suggested the bill could still go ahead after the mid-terms, in what’s called the lame-duck session. Senator Cruz also expressed hope that it could be revived.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is moving ahead with its own crypto regulations. As reported earlier this month, the agency is developing a framework for crypto trading platforms, focusing initially on retail transactions involving leverage, margin or financing.
Related: Bitwise and Hyperliquid Push SEC for Clearer Crypto Rules as Consultation Closes
As reported yesterday, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has now finalised stablecoin regulations under the GENIUS Act, with new provisions coming into effect on 18 January 2027. Unlike the Clarity Act, the GENIUS Act has already been passed into law.
At the same time, the comment period for a proposal by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has now closed. The framework, called Regulation Crypto Assets, intends to provide a clearer path for token issuers under securities laws and investment contracts.
Several industry players, like Ripple, the Cardano Foundation and Chainlink Labs, welcomed the proposal. However, some want “digital commodity” written into the rule text, not just the preamble, so it becomes a lasting legal standard that gives developers regulatory certainty.
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