- Polymarket has partnered with real estate data provider Parcl to launch prediction markets tied to U.S. home prices, allowing traders to bet on local market trends.
- The markets settle against Parcl’s daily housing indices for major metros, including New York City, Miami, and Austin, with contracts focusing on monthly, quarterly, or yearly price moves.
- This expansion into real estate follows a surge in prediction market activity and new congressional efforts to regulate trading by government insiders after suspicious gains on other contracts.
Polymarket is adding US home-price wagers, using daily housing indices from real estate data provider Parcl to settle new prediction markets tied to property prices.
Under the partnership, Parcl will publish independent daily home-price indices that act as the settlement reference, while Polymarket will list the contracts and run the markets, the companies said in a press release.
The first set of markets will focus on major U.S. metro areas, with templates that let traders take positions on whether a city’s index moves up or down over a defined period. Outcomes will resolve against Parcl’s publicly verifiable index values.
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The news triggered a massive rally for Parcl’s token, PRCL, which is now up 76% in the last 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap.
Extending Prediction Markets Beyond Elections
Polymarket’s Matthew Modabber said the goal is to make real estate a core category for prediction markets and stressed that transparent settlement depends on clear data. Parcl chief executive Trevor Bacon said the collaboration reflects a shift toward using markets to express views and generate signals, with the index feed providing an objective reference point.
Parcl is the source of truth for real-estate pricing, and we believe real estate should be a major category within the prediction-market ecosystem. Polymarket is a pioneer in the space, and we’re excited to partner with them.
Trevor Bacon, CEO of Parcl. The rollout extends prediction markets further beyond their earlier focus on elections and macro events, following expansion into categories such as sports and entertainment.
Housing-linked betting products have appeared before. In 2008, the UK betting exchange Betfair listed markets tied to expectations of a housing crash, and its Australian arm ran similar products during the 2020 pandemic as home prices moved sharply during lockdown periods.
The news comes shortly after Congress decided to restrict trading by government insiders on prediction markets, following a Polymarket wager that turned US$32K (AU$49K) into over US$400K (AU$612K) from an individual that placed four bets, all tied to US intervention in Venezuela.
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