Bitcoin’s path to $100k ignites as institutions fortify positions

Bitcoin has stormed into 2026 by rising to its highest level in over a month after climbing above $94,000 on Jan. 5, signaling a potential end to the stagnation that plagued the crypto market in late 2025.

This rally marks a decisive shift in sentiment, given that the flagship digital asset closed the previous year with a whimper while equities reached record highs.

However, that trend appears reversed, with the first trading sessions of the new year delivering a modest but significant reversal.

During this period, Bitcoin is up over 3% year-to-date and is showing renewed vigor, driven by a confluence of favorable macroeconomic conditions, resurgent institutional demand, and a cleaner derivatives market.

The macro shift

Underpinning this nascent recovery is a transforming macroeconomic landscape in the United States. Heading into 2026, two reinforcing trends are reshaping the investment climate: a steepening yield curve and a structurally weaker dollar.

Analysts at Bitfinex told CryptoSlate that the US Treasury curve has moved decisively out of the inverted state that characterized the 2022–2024 period.

This normalization is driven by expectations of eventual policy easing at the front end, coupled with elevated long-dated yields stemming from inflation uncertainty and fiscal concerns.

They furthered that this configuration reflects a repricing of duration and credibility risk rather than renewed growth optimism. In this environment, financial conditions remain tighter than headline rate cuts would suggest, creating a backdrop where liquidity improves only selectively.

Simultaneously, the US dollar has weakened meaningfully.

While the greenback’s structural foundations remain intact—supported by deep capital markets and demand for Treasuries—the current depreciation appears managed, reflecting policy preferences for improved trade competitiveness.

This combination of a softer dollar and elevated long-end yields favors assets with “real” or defensive characteristics and near-term pricing power.

Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against fiat debasement and liquidity expansion, stands to benefit directly from this regime.

Institutional Bitcoin appetite returns

Beyond the macro headwinds turning into tailwinds, the specific drivers of Bitcoin’s price action are increasingly institutional in nature.

The pace of ETF-driven selling, which dampened price action late last year, slowed materially into year-end. As liquidity conditions improve in early 2026, the market is already seeing the impact.

In the first two trading days of the year alone, data from Coinperps shows that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $1 billion in inflows, signaling that institutional capital is rotating back into the asset class.

Meanwhile, this renewed demand is not limited to passive funds, as Bitcoin treasury firms are also accumulating BTC.

Charles Edwards, the CEO of Capriole, noted:

“Bitcoin treasury companies just flipped to net buying again…Institutions are once again net buyers of Bitcoin.”

Indeed, the market has seen an increasing number of BTC treasury companies announce new purchases recently.

For context, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate BTC holder, reinforced its long-term commitment to the asset with another significant purchase, bringing its total holdings to 673,783 BTC.

At the same time, asset management firm Strive announced it had acquired 101.8 BTC in late December, bringing its total holdings to 7,626.8 BTC.

These purchases mark a significant turnaround from the end of last year, when these firms’ activities slowed.

Market mechanics

Market structure data suggests that this rally is built on a healthier foundation than the speculative fervor of previous cycles.

According to blockchain analysis platform Checkonchain, Bitcoin’s move above $94,000 was accompanied by a squeeze on short positions, yet the broader derivatives landscape remains “surprisingly clean.”

BTC futures open interest has collapsed from a peak of $98 billion in October to approximately $58 billion today, indicating a massive deleveraging event has already occurred.

Furthermore, annualized funding rates are sitting at roughly 5.8%, aligning with the long-term median.

This neutrality suggests the market has returned to a spot-driven regime, where price rallies are fueled by genuine demand rather than excessive leverage.

Under the hood, a massive supply redistribution is validating the bullish thesis. Data from blockchain intelligence firm Santiment shows a “very bullish” divergence in market behavior: “whales” are aggressively accumulating while small retail wallets are exiting.

Since Dec. 17, large stakeholders—specifically those holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin—have collectively added 56,227 BTC to their balances. Santiment notes that this accumulation marked the asset’s local bottom.

Crucially, this buying pressure from large entities is occurring while retail traders remain skeptical. Over the past 24 hours, wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have begun taking profits, seemingly expecting the current price action to be a “bull trap” or “fool’s rally.”

According to Santiment, markets typically move in the opposite direction of small retail wallets. The combination of whales accumulating and retail dumping creates a setup that the firm characterizes as “very bullish,” as coins transfer from weaker hands to long-term holders.

Moreover, James Coutt, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, highlighted the technical alignment supporting the move.

“Finally seeing proper bullish alignment, not just one indicator firing,” Coutt said, pointing to a DeMark 13 exhaustion signal on Dec. 31 and a bullish flip in the ‘Trend Chameleon’ indicator.

He noted that this specific liquidity regime has historically delivered median 180-day returns of nearly 26% with high win rates.

The path to six digits

Considering these developments, BTC traders are already positioning for the rally to extend well beyond current levels.

Since Jan. 2, there has been a surge in interest for January expiry call options with a $100,000 strike price on Deribit.

Jake Ostrovskis, head of Wintermute OTC, observed that call buying is dominating desk flow, with the “aggressive put premium” finally fading.

Data from CryptoQuant’s analyst Darkfost reinforces this bullish outlook.

The analyst noted that the Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio on Binance—a key metric for assessing potential buying power—is hovering around levels last seen during the March 2025 correction. Notably, this was just before Bitcoin launched a rally to its all-time high of roughly $126,000.

He also pointed out that stablecoin reserves have increased by approximately $1 billion recently, indicating a loaded “dry powder” keg ready for deployment.

According to him:

“This shift could mark the early stages of a gradual deployment of sidelined liquidity, which would represent a very positive signal for the market.”

While some caution remains, the immediate setup points to higher prices.

With Bitcoin reclaiming systematic levels and US-session selling pressure abating, the path of least resistance appears to be higher. If the cryptocurrency can sustain its momentum above $94,000, the psychological $100,000 barrier may be the next domino to fall.