Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, recently declared that Bitcoin is in a bear market that could extend through the third quarter of 2026.
He’s not alone. Matt Hougan at Bitwise and a growing chorus of institutional voices are using the “bear” label more freely than at any point since early 2023.
Yet the same analysts often hedge with structure: many institutions are holding or adding exposure even as they acknowledge the regime shift.
This creates a definitional problem. If a bear market no longer means capitulation and exodus, what does it mean?
And if the famous four-year cycle is dead, as VanEck, K33 Research, and 21Shares have each argued in recent reports, how long does a bear market last when the old calendar no longer applies?
What configures a bear market
The traditional finance definition for a bear market offers a starting point.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission defines a bear market as a broad index falling 20% or more over at least two months. Bitcoin cleared that threshold months ago.
From its early October 2025 peak above $126,000, BTC has declined by roughly 41% to approximately $74,000 as of Feb. 3. By the headline standard, the case is closed.
However, Coinbase Institutional research explicitly calls the 20% threshold “somewhat arbitrary” and less applicable to crypto, where 20% swings can happen without a true regime change.
In practice, analysts rely on a three-part dashboard: price trend, positioning and derivatives, and demand and liquidity.
Price trend is the most visible. CryptoQuant leans heavily on the 365-day moving average as a boundary marker.
Bitcoin currently trades below that level, which sits around $101,448. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, a composite measure of on-chain health, registered 20 out of 100, described as extreme bear territory.
Coinbase has used the 200-day moving average in past cycle analyses to qualify bear regimes, and Bitcoin remains below that threshold as well.
Positioning and derivatives offer a second signal. Glassnode’s recent Week On-Chain reports document rotation toward downside protection, bearish skew in options markets, and conditions that increase downside sensitivity, including dealer gamma below zero.
When traders pay premiums to hedge against further declines rather than to capture upside, the market is behaving defensively.
Demand and liquidity provide the structural context. CoinShares estimates that large holders have sold approximately $29 billion in Bitcoin since October. Digital asset exchange-traded products saw approximately $440 million in year-to-date outflows.
CryptoQuant and MarketWatch characterize the current regime as weak demand combined with contracting stablecoin liquidity, classic ingredients of a bear market.
The latest Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode global investor survey, conducted from Dec. 10, 2025, to Jan. 12, 2026, found that 26% of institutions now describe the market as being in the bear phase. The results are up from just 2% in the prior survey.
Yet the same survey revealed that 62% of institutions held or increased net long exposure since October, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued.
This disconnect is the defining feature of the 2026 bear market. It’s not about capitulation—it’s about regime recognition while maintaining structural exposure.
The label “bear market” is becoming less about who is fleeing and more about who is still buying, even as sentiment remains terrible.
When does this bear market end?
Defining the end of a bear market requires clarity about what “end” means.
The most rigorous approach treats it as a regime shift rather than a feeling. Analysts identify three practical triggers: trend reclamation, demand inflection, and risk appetite normalization.
Trend reclaim occurs when Bitcoin regains and holds above long-term moving averages, such as the 200-day or 365-day, for multiple weeks.
Demand inflection means exchange-traded fund and exchange-traded product flows shift from subdued or negative to sustained inflows, and large-holder distribution slows.
Risk appetite normalization means options skew returns to balanced levels, with less demand for downside protection and leverage building sustainably.
The forward-looking scenarios cluster into three time horizons, each supported by specific analyst commentary.
The first scenario is a classic crypto winter that extends through mid or late 2026.
Julio Moreno has identified $70,000 over three to six months and $56,000 in the second half of 2026 as a deeper potential path. This scenario assumes demand stays weak, flows remain negative, and Bitcoin fails repeated attempts to reclaim its moving averages. Bear-market rallies happen but fail to hold.
The second scenario is a shorter, shallower bear market lasting three to six months, characterized by choppy, range-bound price action, followed by improving conditions in the second half of 2026.
CoinShares explicitly expects a choppy three-to-six-month period, with medium-term constructive conditions as whale selling exhausts by mid-2026.
In this framing, the bear market is more about time than depth: a regime in which upside is capped until demand reverses, but the floor holds.
The third scenario treats the bear market as a liquidity-wave event rather than a calendar-based cycle.
The bear ends when demand and liquidity re-accelerate, regardless of what the halving clock says. This maps directly onto CryptoQuant’s demand-led framing and avoids determinism stemming from halving. It acknowledges that the old playbook may no longer apply.
| Scenario | Horizon | What it looks like | Primary triggers to watch | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic winter (Moreno path) | Mid/late 2026 | Failed rallies; deeper retests | Sustained failure to reclaim 200D/365D; weak flows; persistent downside hedging | Reclaim + hold above MAs and flows flip sustainably positive |
| Short, shallow bear (CoinShares path) | 3–6 months | Range-bound chop; capped upside | Stabilizing ETP flows; whale selling slows/exhausts | Breakdown below key support zones with rising liquidation pressure |
| Liquidity-wave regime (post 4-year cycle) | Variable | Ends when liquidity/demand turns, not a calendar | Global liquidity proxies, real yields, stablecoin liquidity, hedging demand | Liquidity improves but BTC still can’t reclaim long MAs (suggests structural weakness) |
Is this bear market smaller than past cycles?
The current drawdown of roughly 40% is already small compared to the stereotypical over 70% crypto winters of prior cycles.
However, multiple analysts’ downside scenarios cluster around $55,000 to $60,000, implying a total drawdown closer to the mid-50% range if realized.
That would still be smaller than historic extremes but meaningful enough to qualify as a bear market by any standard.
The market is also increasingly bifurcated. Bitcoin holds structural leadership, whereas much of the rest of the crypto market performs far worse.
The Coinbase and Glassnode report emphasize this via dominance metrics and defensive positioning behavior. The 2026 market is K-shaped, and the “bear market” may affect asset classes unevenly.
The four-year cycle is over, but what replaces it?
VanEck argued in 2025 that the four-year cycle had broken and that the old playbook was less reliable.
K33 Research published a report titled “4-year cycle is dead, long live the king,” which lays out why the regime changed.
21Shares describes the cycle as evolving, potentially extending to five years, as liquidity waves lengthen and institutional participation deepens.
What replaces the four-year clock is a liquidity-and-flows clock. This includes real yields, global liquidity impulses, flows of exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded products, stablecoin liquidity, and hedging demand.
CoinShares explicitly frames Bitcoin’s recent dislocation in terms of relationships with precious metals and macro liquidity. Coinbase and Glassnode emphasize a defensive derivatives posture as a real-time regime indicator.
The implication for bear market duration is that bear markets may become more frequent but less severe. Instead of existential winters, the market may experience more frequent regime drawdowns if institutional flows provide a floor.
Rallies can still fail until demand and liquidity turn, but the underlying structure may prevent the kind of multi-year capitulation that has defined past cycles.
This creates a paradox. The bear market may last longer in calendar time but inflict less damage in percentage terms. Or it may end sooner if demand inflects before the old cycle logic would predict.
Either way, the clock that governed Bitcoin for a decade no longer governs it.
The checklist matters more than the calendar
In 2026, calling a bear market isn’t one metric, but a checklist.
Trend breaks, hedging demand, and a demand-liquidity rollover all point in the same direction. Bitcoin is in a bear regime by most frameworks that matter.
When it ends depends less on the halving calendar and more on the timing of the demand cycle. CoinShares expects three to six months of chop. CryptoQuant sees potential for deeper lows in the second half of the year.
Both could be right at different moments if the regime oscillates rather than resolves cleanly.
The four-year cycle is dead, but the question of when this bear ends is not unanswerable. It ends when Bitcoin reclaims its long-term moving averages, when institutional flows turn positive, and when options markets stop pricing for protection.
Until then, the market is in a regime where upside is capped, and patience is required. Even if institutions keep buying while calling it a bear.
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