US Bitcoin reserve faces potential 30% drop from court restitution

The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could lose nearly 30% of its holdings in a single legal move, even if the government does not sell a single coin.

Last year, President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order directed the Treasury Department to consolidate government-held BTC into a reserve account and promised that the United States would not sell those coins.

Yet, the headline number for the reserve may be overstating how much BTC the government can actually treat as a permanent strategic asset.

Data from Bitcoin Treasuries estimates that the US government controls about 328,372 BTC. This makes it the world’s largest known state holder. At today’s bitcoin price of about $65,842, that stash is worth roughly $21.6 billion.

However, here is the complication. A large chunk of that US holdings figure includes BTC held by the government, but not cleanly government-owned in the strategic sense.

The executive order explicitly allows dispositions pursuant to a court order of a competent jurisdiction. It singles out a specific carve-out for assets that should be returned to identifiable, verifiable victims of crime.

That exception matters because roughly 94,643 BTC, about 30% of the government’s holdings, is tied to the 2016 Bitfinex hack.

If those coins are returned as restitution, the reserve number would fall mechanically to about 234,000 BTC.

The reserve number is real, but the ownership question is still open

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is often discussed as if it were a clean, sovereign balance sheet. In practice, it is a legal and accounting mix.

Some of the BTC attributed to the government has been fully forfeited and is clearly under US control.

However, some are still entangled in criminal cases, restitution claims, or procedural steps that can take years to resolve.

That gap is now central to the debate over the US reserve.

The 94,643 BTC tied to Bitfinex is the clearest example. Those coins are visible in government-linked custody, and markets count them.

However, if a court determines they should be returned to victims, they were never truly a permanent strategic reserve asset in the first place.

This is why both sides of the public debate can miss the point.

The bullish version overstates the durability of the reserve if it treats every government-controlled coin as permanently strategic. The bearish version overstates the market impact if it treats a restitution transfer as a sovereign sale.

The legal distinction matters for price, for sentiment, and for how investors interpret the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve itself.

Why the Bitfinex coins remain frozen

The Bitfinex theft involved the theft of 119,754 BTC in August 2016, one of the largest BTC thefts in crypto history.

In February 2022, US authorities recovered about 94,643 BTC connected to that hack, a seizure that stood out for both its scale and its timing.

The next question was always restitution.

In January 2025, prosecutors asked a federal court to approve returning the recovered assets to Bitfinex as in-kind restitution, meaning the BTC would be returned as Bitcoin rather than sold first and converted into dollars.

That distinction is important for market structure.

A government sale or auction would create a visible supply event, with timing and size known in advance. An in-kind return pushes the next decision downstream, to the recipients.

That could be Bitfinex, its former users, or both, depending on how the court resolves competing claims.

US forfeiture procedure is designed to slow this stage. Third parties claiming an interest in forfeited property may file petitions in an ancillary proceeding. In the Bitfinex case, that process has become the core battleground.

Some customers argue that the stolen assets were theirs individually. On the other hand, Bitfinex argues it ultimately bore the economic loss after socializing losses and later making users whole through internal mechanisms.

So, the outcome of this matters well beyond this case because it could shape how restitution is handled in future exchange hacks.

Until the court resolves those claims or the parties reach a settlement, the coins remain effectively immobilized.

That is why the reserve can appear stable on-chain while remaining uncertain in legal terms.

LEO is acting like a market proxy for the court outcome

The legal process remains slow, but traders are attempting to price the outcome through UNUS SED LEO (LEO), the exchange token for Bitfinex and iFinex.

Bitfinex has stated that if it receives the recovered BTC, it intends to use 80% of the net funds to repurchase and burn LEO within 18 months.

The company noted this process could include over-the-counter transactions, such as direct BTC-for-LEO swaps.

This policy effectively turns a federal court decision into a massive buyback pipeline. It gives the market a mechanism to speculate on the timeline well before a legal resolution.

In light of this, Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, models LEO with two primary value drivers. These include ongoing buybacks funded by Bitfinex trading revenues and the expected future burn tied to the recovered bitcoin.

Using a baseline of roughly 95,000 recovered BTC, Lunde estimates the 80% allocation would equal about 75,000 BTC. At current prices, that pool is worth roughly $5 billion.

Meanwhile, he calculates that the trade-revenue buybacks alone represent a fair value of about $125 million.

However, trading this catalyst is highly volatile.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that LEO has a market capitalization of about $8 billion but a 24-hour trading volume of just $7.1 million. That thin liquidity profile can severely magnify price movements.

Meanwhile, the huge market capitalization also shows that LEO is trading at a roughly 60% premium to its implied fair value.

This marks the highest premium since the extended period of elevated pricing that followed the initial seizure announcement in 2022.

According to Lunde, the current premium remains noisy because LEO is highly illiquid and has concentrated ownership, meaning a small number of participants can heavily skew the market.

As a result, traders may be front-running a court transfer, or simply leaning into momentum in an environment where fair value takes a back seat.

Ultimately, LEO’s illiquidity will amplify the final outcome. A confirmed transfer could push valuations even higher in the short term.

Conversely, a modest or delayed supply distribution could rapidly compress the premium.

Why the headline may hit harder than the actual BTC flows

The broader macro backdrop explains why this story is likely to move sentiment even before the court decides anything.

Bitcoin has been trading through a risk-off regime in early 2026.

For context, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen sharp capital exits of more than $4.5 billion this year, amid a 5-week streak of outflows.

In that environment, traders are already sensitive to supply headlines, especially anything tied to state-owned BTC.

So, a headline saying the US is transferring roughly 95,000 BTC would be built to shock markets.

If the coins leave government custody, the move would be restitution, not a government sale.

And if Bitfinex receives the coins and follows its stated buy-and-burn plan, the resulting BTC flow is likely to be time-sliced rather than dumped into the market at once.

Even on the rougher, rounded version of the math, about 75,000 BTC over 18 months works out to about 139 BTC per day.

That could influence LEO’s price, but it does not represent a significant supply shock compared with the far larger distribution pressure Bitcoin has already absorbed from long-term holders and ETF outflows over the past five months.

So, the real market impact may come from narrative framing rather than coin flow.

This is because the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve represents more than a simple stockpile of BTC. It functions as a political and market signal that traders can read as either bullish or bearish, even while the legal status of those coins remains unresolved.

That is why the “US loses 30% of its bitcoin reserves” framing is likely to trigger volatility. It is emotionally clean. It fits in a headline. It also strips out the legal substance.

However, the legal substance is the story.

The SBR was built to coexist with restitution. If the Bitfinex tranche leaves government custody, the reserve number on trackers will fall, and markets will react.

But the deeper point will be unchanged. The United States would not be backing away from its reserve policy. It would be following the rule of law, which is exactly what the reserve framework said it would do.

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