Bitcoin price outlook: analyst warns it’s ‘premature’ to say bear market is over

• Bitcoin price trades around $67,500.
• The asset rose to near $70,000 but is facing key resistance.
• Analyst Rekt Capital warns that it’s “premature” to say the current bear market is over.

Bitcoin price is hovering around $67,500 after retreating from highs near $70,000.

The spike to intraday highs on Wednesday saw chatter across ‘Crypto Twitter’ shift to the potential for BTC to have bottomed out and prospects of a sharp uptick.

While bullish sentiment continues to permeate the crypto market, one analyst is cautioning against “premature” calls of the bear market being over.

This even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs take fresh inflows to cut year-to-date outflows to under $2 billion.

Bitcoin retreats from $70k as analyst warns of further declines

Macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds have meant Bitcoin has found it hard to break higher since recovering from lows near $60,000 reached in early February.

However, the bellwether crypto asset surged toward $70,000 ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, February 25, 2026.

Like gains across equities, Bitcoin’s uptick benefited from anticipation around Nvidia’s earnings report.

But despite strong AI-driven results, stock futures stalled, and BTC pulled back, trading to around $67,500 as of writing.

Nvidia shares also fell, down more than 5% at open on Thursday. Reaction to the chip giant’s earnings beat impacted BTC.

Despite this pullback, many traders are upbeat after US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a recent losing streak, with over $750 million in net inflows over two days. The flip has the market trending with mixed signals.

Half a bil into bitcoin ETFs yesterday, biggest day in a while, +$750m over past two days, right as obituaries were being published. They needed it too, like a hitter in a slump going yard. YTD is now under $2b in outflows. Unclear still tho if this is legit start to rebound or… pic.twitter.com/hl6JQuFcyI

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 26, 2026

However, according to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, it’s premature to say the bear market is over.

“The shortest Bitcoin Bear Market lasted 365 days. Bitcoin is currently ~140 days into its current Bear Market,” he posted on X, adding:

“Any talk of the Bear Market being over already is probably premature.”

Spot ETF inflows, on-chain metrics and macro shifts could be key factors in this cycle. But Rekt believes the technical picture says a lot.

In this case, the analyst points to historical cycle bottoms and BTC’s slide below the 200-week exponential moving average.

Even with recent inflows reversing recent outflows to a degree, institutional demand is low, and that could limit any upside.

#BTC

It’s very tempting to speak about Lengthening Cycles in a Bitcoin Bull Market

After all, nobody wants to see a sunny day end

It’s equally very tempting to speak about the Bitcoin Bear Market bottom already being near

Everybody wants Winter to end, and the sooner the…

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) February 26, 2026

BTC price analysis

Technically, Bitcoin’s retreat from $70,000 exposes support at $68,000-$68,500.

With a breakdown to $67,500, bulls risk an acceleration toward $60,000.

Rekt shares this outlook by noting that bulls remain vulnerable as long as price fluctuates below the 200-week EMA.

The moving average has acted as resistance in previous bear markets, including in 2018.

“Ultimately, as long as Bitcoin remains below the 200-week EMA, history suggests price will favour additional downside,” the analyst noted.

Earlier this month, analysts at Standard Chartered cut their target for BTC in 2026 to $100,000 and forecast a potential retest of $50,000 before a fresh rally higher.