- Glassnode data shows Bitcoin has entered a thinly accumulated range between US$72K and US$82K where on-chain resistance is minimal.
- Only about 60% of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit, a level historically linked to first-bounce exhaustion at cycle bottoms rather than confirmed bull market transitions.
- Institutional ETF holders maintained positions through a 50% drawdown, but short-term holders are taking profits at US$18.4 million per hour, and March ETF inflows have dropped 73% from February’s peak.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose back above US$74K (AU$104K), moving into a price range with relatively little on-chain supply, according to Glassnode.
The on-chain platform said the US$72K to US$82K (AU$115K) zone saw limited accumulation during the recent decline, which may reduce near-term selling pressure. It identified US$78K (AU$106K) as the next key on-chain level.
Regardless of longer-term resolution, the $72k–$82k air gap defines the most probable trading range in the short-term.
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What’s Behind The Rebound?
The rebound has been led mainly by spot demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen renewed inflows, while CME futures open interest has remained muted.
Negative funding rates also suggest traders are still positioned for downside. Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez said similar setups in recent years have preceded relief rallies.
However, Glassnode noted that only 60% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, below the roughly 75% level typically seen in stronger expansion phases. Short-term holders are also selling into strength at about US$18.4 million (AU$25 million) per hour near US$74K.
Besides, ETF demand seems to be cooling as March inflows were about US$890 million (AU$1.2 billion), down from US$3.3 billion (AU$4.9 billion) in February. Some analysts said the latest jump was driven more by short covering after US strikes on Iran than by fresh conviction buying.
After the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on March 18 and raised its inflation forecast to 2.7%, Bitcoin fell about 4% to US$71,600 (AU$109,548).
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