Bitcoin’s rally stalls below $80k: Check forecast

TL;DR

• BTC briefly touched the $79k level during the late hours of Sunday.
• US-listed spot BTC ETFs recorded inflows of over $820 million last week, marking the fourth straight week of positive flows.

Bitcoin (BTC) edges slightly lower on Monday, trading around $77,873 after securing its fourth consecutive weekly gain since late March. Despite the mild pullback, the broader bullish structure remains intact, underpinned by steady institutional demand. 

However, as BTC approaches the critical $80,000 resistance zone, rising geopolitical uncertainty tied to US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz is tempering near-term risk appetite.

Institutional demand remains a key factor

Institutional flows continue to provide strong support for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $823.7 million in net inflows last week, following $996.38 million the week prior. 

This marks four straight weeks of positive inflows, reinforcing sustained institutional interest. If the trend persists or accelerates, it could fuel another leg higher for BTC in the near term.
While fundamentals remain supportive, macro uncertainty is capping momentum. Reports suggest Iran has submitted a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the current ceasefire, aiming to move toward a longer-term resolution. However, the outcome remains uncertain. 

US President Donald Trump reportedly dismissed the proposal as insufficient, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected negotiations under pressure. This backdrop has dampened risk sentiment, prompting a pause in Bitcoin’s recent rally.

Bitcoin price outlook: Bullish bias intact despite resistance

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient. Technically, Bitcoin maintains a constructive outlook despite facing rejection near $80,000. Last week’s 6% gain pushed BTC above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490, a key resistance zone. 

A sustained move higher could see BTC retest $80,000, with further upside targeting the 200-week EMA at $82,488.

Momentum indicators support the bullish case. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI sits at 54, above the neutral territory, signaling weakening bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bullish crossover from mid-April, with a rising histogram reinforcing upside potential.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $78,962 (50% retracement), followed by the psychological $80,000 level. A breakout above this zone could open the door toward $83,437 (61.8% retracement) and $84,410.

However, if the bears regain control, initial support sits near $75,680, followed closely by the 100-day EMA at $75,619 and the 38.2% retracement at $74,487. 

A deeper pullback could test the 50-day EMA at $73,363, with further support at $68,950 and the lower channel boundary near $63,033, ahead of the major structural floor at $60,000.