XRP holds above $1.40 as ETF inflows return: Check forecast

Ripple (XRP) is trading just above $1.40 on Tuesday, showing gradual momentum despite lingering macro uncertainty.

The token, alongside the broader crypto market, has remained resilient even as tensions in the Middle East persist and the US–Iran ceasefire faces renewed pressure.

Risk appetite has stabilized in recent weeks, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rising to 50 from 40 a day earlier, reflecting a shift toward more neutral sentiment.

ETF inflows signal cautious optimism

Investor interest in XRP spot ETFs remains mixed but constructive. US-listed products recorded modest inflows of $3.87 million on Monday following subdued activity at the end of last week, suggesting a cautiously bullish short- to medium-term outlook.

Cumulative inflows have now reached $1.29 billion, with total assets under management at $1.07 billion. Continued ETF demand remains a key pillar for sustaining positive sentiment and supporting the case for a broader uptrend.

In the derivatives market, momentum remains muted. Open Interest (OI) in XRP perpetual futures edged up slightly to $2.60 billion from $2.50 billion the previous day.

However, this is still well below the $10.94 billion peak seen in July, when XRP reached its all-time high of $3.66. The divergence highlights the importance of stronger retail participation to drive a more meaningful rally.

Technical outlook: XRP faces a key resistance zone

The XRP/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient. XRP is trading just below the 50-day EMA at $1.41 and remains under the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $1.51 and $1.74, indicating that upside attempts are still being capped.

Momentum indicators show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 60, pointing to mild bullish pressure but largely consistent with consolidation.

Meanwhile, a contracting negative MACD histogram suggests bearish momentum is fading.

A decisive daily close above the $1.51 resistance zone—aligned with the 100-day EMA and broader downtrend—would be needed to shift sentiment and open the path toward $1.74.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.39, followed by the monthly open near $1.37.