Bitcoin price crosses $81K, but derivatives and network activity remain low: check forecast

• Bitcoin (BTC) holds above $81,000 as short-term momentum strengthens.
• Weak network growth signals cautious market participation.
• BTC faces major resistance at $89,500.

Bitcoin has climbed above $81,000, extending its monthly recovery and testing its highest trading range in roughly three months.

At press time, BTC was trading around $81,467 after gaining 5.2% over the past seven days and 17.6% over the last 30 days.

The latest move places Bitcoin in a critical technical zone, with several underlying metrics suggesting the rally is still developing under cautious conditions rather than broad market conviction.

Network activity and derivatives participation remain muted

While Bitcoin’s spot price has improved, on-chain data point to weaker user participation than during previous major rallies.

Active addresses and transaction activity have not increased at the same pace as price, signalling that retail demand remains limited.

This divergence between price and blockchain activity often suggests that current momentum is being supported more by institutional demand and large investors than by widespread organic adoption.

Notably, institutional participation through spot Bitcoin ETFs has surged, with billions in capital inflows helping stabilise prices above key support zones.

However, derivatives market participation has remained relatively restrained compared to previous breakout cycles, with lower speculative leverage and softer futures activity indicating traders are cautious.

In addition, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently reads 50, placing sentiment in neutral territory.

This reflects a market that is neither euphoric nor fearful, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin’s recent strength has not yet triggered widespread speculative enthusiasm.

Technical indicators show bullish momentum

Bitcoin’s short-term technical structure remains positive, with 12 out of 23 major technical indicators leaning bullish currently.

Furthermore, BTC is trading above its 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day exponential moving averages, which support continued bullish momentum.

However, Bitcoin remains below its long-term 200-day EMA, showing that macro resistance is still intact.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 69.5, placing BTC just below overbought territory.

While this suggests strong momentum, traders should closely watch for possible exhaustion if RSI breaks above 70 without stronger volume.

Post-halving cycle points to late-stage expansion

Bitcoin’s fourth halving took place in April 2024, reducing miner rewards to 3.125 BTC per block.

The asset is now approximately 25 months into its post-halving cycle.

Historically, this stage has often aligned with stronger price expansion, heightened volatility, and eventual cycle peaks before larger retracements.

Previous Bitcoin bull cycles reached new all-time highs roughly 1,405 to 1,477 days apart.

Based on this pattern, the current cycle may still have room for further upside, though historical trends also suggest increasing risks of correction as the cycle matures.

Short-term Bitcoin forecast remains cautiously bullish

Looking at the current market structure, the immediate resistance zone sits at $89,479.

A confirmed close above that level could open the path toward the next resistance near $90,975.

However, in case of a pullback, especially if the oversold region is reached, then the key support level sits at $75,109.

A break below $75,109 would likely weaken the bullish structure and raise the probability of deeper corrections.

Moving ahead, traders should carefully monitor the Bitcoin ETF inflows, whale accumulation, and RSI behaviour, for clearer confirmation of whether the current move can develop into a larger sustained rally.