Tron (TRX) price retests $0.35: further rally or are bulls in trouble?

• Tron (TRX) price is trading above $0.35 as the latest upward move adds to recent gains.
• The altcoin’s higher price action and network activity show marked divergence.
• Can TRX continue the uptick, or are bulls set for trouble amid a sharp reversal?

TRON (TRX) is among the stronger-performing altcoins on the day, posting modest gains as the token retests the key $0.35 resistance level amid a broader recovery across the crypto market.

Intraday data shows TRX trading volume declining 13% to about $639 million, suggesting softer market participation despite the price uptick.

The token’s ability to hold near current levels mirrors broader sentiment across major cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin and Ethereum also maintaining important support zones.

However, analysts note that TRX’s price advance contrasts with weakening network activity metrics, a divergence that could point to potential downside risks if momentum fades.

TRX price outlook – overbought danger?

TRON is up about 23% year-to-date, making it one of the stronger-performing major altcoins over that period.

The token has continued to climb since rebounding from lows near $0.26 in early February.

Bulls are now testing resistance around $0.35, with traders watching for a possible move toward highs last seen in 2024.

Despite the strong performance, short-term technical indicators are beginning to show signs of caution.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into overbought territory, a condition often associated with slowing momentum or potential reversals in momentum-driven markets.

Meanwhile, the MACD remains in bullish territory, although the indicator is beginning to show signs of weakening momentum.

CryptoQuant’s latest analysis highlighted this vulnerability, pointing to the stark divergence between price action and network activity.

According to the analysts, the TRX price surges in the past weeks have not aligned with on-chain activity.

For instance, the “Tokens Transferred (Total)” metric shrank from 17.3 billion to 12.2 billion, indicating reduced network utility. Prices bounced higher during this period.

“Typically, a healthy and sustainable price rally is validated by increasing network activity and utility. This glaring divergence suggests that the current upward momentum to $0.35 is not supported by actual on-chain usage. It implies that the recent price action might be driven more by speculation or hoarding rather than organic network activity,” CryptoQuant noted.

TRON experienced an 11% decline in the TRX burn ratio during Q1 2026, as users shifted toward staking rather than burning tokens for transaction fee discounts.

External factors, including ongoing scrutiny of founder Justin Sun, may further embolden bears if sentiment sours.

In the short term, key support levels cluster around $0.32-$0.29, which is where the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages currently hover.

A decisive break above $0.36 could validate the rally toward $0.40. Tron hit its all-time high price above $0.44 in December 2024.