Cantor Sees Bitcoin Bottom Approaching After 51% Drop, Says Cycle History Points to Late October

Bitcoin is only a few months from bottoming out in its current downturn, according to Cantor Fitzgerald analysts who argue that historical cycle patterns point to a low around late October if the market behaves as it has before.

The call came from a team led by Gareth Gacetta, who framed the outlook around the rhythm of past Bitcoin cycles rather than any single catalyst. The token was trading near US$59,500 (AU$86,275) at the time of the note, down roughly 51% from its 2025 peak.

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“Ultimately, our belief is that we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback,” Gacetta’s team stated.

The analysts tied the drawdown to persistent exchange-traded fund outflows, elevated interest rates, and a broadly weaker appetite for risk assets. They cautioned that the model is not a precise timing tool, noting that macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical shocks could pull the bottom forward or push it back.

Where Cantor Sees Value

Even with the cautious framing, the team argued that Bitcoin’s reflexive nature means historical cycles can become self-reinforcing, as falling prices eventually exhaust sellers and set the stage for recovery.

Cantor advised investors to shift focus toward networks demonstrating durable value accrual, whether through sustainable cash flow or lasting monetary demand, identifying Bitcoin as the benchmark monetary asset. 

The bank also flagged digital asset treasury companies as an emerging theme worth watching, a nod to the growing cohort of listed firms holding crypto on their balance sheets.

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