- Bitcoin traded near US$61,800 on July 8, roughly 51% below its October 2025 record above US$126,000.
- Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick says the cycle bottomed at about US$59,000 on June 5 and keeps a US$100,000 (AU$144,000) year-end target.
- Galaxy Research’s base case puts the low between US$40,000 and US$46,000 before the fourth quarter of 2026, and Citi cut its 12-month target to US$82,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded near US$61,800 (AU$88,992) on July 8, about half its October 2025 record above US$126,000 (AU$181,440), and major research desks are split on whether the cycle low is already in.
Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick told clients in mid-June that Bitcoin likely bottomed at about US$59,000 (AU$84,960) on June 5, and the bank kept its US$100,000 (AU$144,000) year-end target.
Kendrick pointed to corporate treasury buying and spot ETF flows as demand sources that did not exist in past downturns, noting fund holdings slipped only from 682,000 BTC to about 674,000 BTC through the drawdown.
“That tells me the ETF structure is stronger than I feared back in the winter,” he wrote.
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Galaxy Sees the Low Later and Lower
Galaxy Research’s base case puts the cycle low between US$40,000 (AU$57,600) and US$46,000 (AU$66,240) before the fourth quarter of 2026.
The firm said only four of 13 historical bottom indicators have triggered so far, and that past bottoms formed about 12 to 13 months after cycle peaks, a pattern pointing to late 2026.
Galaxy also noted the current drawdown of about 51% compares with declines of 77% to 85% in earlier cycles, and said Bitcoin’s lower valuation multiple at the peak raises the likely floor this time.
Citi actually lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target to US$82,000 (AU$118,080) from US$112,000 (AU$161,280) on July 1, its second cut this year.
The bank dropped its assumption of US$10 billion (AU$14.4 billion) in ETF net inflows over the coming year to zero, and its analysts flagged about US$4 billion (AU$5.76 billion) of June outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the products’ worst month on record.
Related: Bitcoin Squeezes Past $63K, But Traders Brace for “Monday Curse” to Strike Again
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