- Eight of 12 capitulation signals were firing as of 12 August, and all 12 reached their capitulation zone at some point in the prior three months, VanEck said.
- VanEck flags that its drawdown signal fires on an absolute minus 35% rule; on its own percentile rule the count would be seven of 12.
- Bitcoin closed 11 August at US$63,549 (AU$89,604), about 49% below its record and flat on the month.
VanEck says eight of the 12 signals in its Bitcoin capitulation dashboard were firing as of 12 August, and that the market is nearing or already in an accumulation phase after a drawdown the firm puts in its 10th month.
Analysts Patrick Bush, Matthew Sigel and Griffin MacMaster wrote in the firm’s Mid-August 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck that all 12 signals had reached their capitulation zone at some point in the prior three months.
“We have witnessed what appears to be Bitcoin price capitulation. We are nearing or currently in an accumulation phase,” they wrote.
Bitcoin closed 11 August at US$63,549 (AU$89,604), essentially flat month over month and about 49% below its all-time high.
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A Threshold Doing Real Work
VanEck fires its price drawdown indicator on an absolute minus 35% rule, while the other 11 signals use a percentile rule, and it says so explicitly.
At minus 49%, the drawdown sits in the 35th percentile of its own history and would not fire on the percentile rule, “which would put us at 7 of 12 rather than 8 of 12.”
“We flag that choice because it is doing real work,” the analysts wrote, adding that they use the absolute threshold deliberately.
Their reasoning is that the previous troughs of minus 94%, minus 85%, minus 84% and minus 78% were set in a market with no spot exchange-traded product bid, a far smaller institutional holder base and lenders that collapsed.
“This cycle has had no Celsius, no Three Arrows Capital (3AC), and no FTX. We expect a shallower trough as a result.”
The Timing Range
Across the four completed cycles since 2011, the peak-to-trough phase averaged 11 months, or 12.7 months excluding 2011, which VanEck says ran on a market that barely existed. Counting from the October 2025 peak, that puts a transition into accumulation between September and November this year. “We would rather show the range than pick the earlier number,” the analysts wrote.
With eight to 12 indicators firing, mean 90-day returns of 12.8% and 180-day returns of 32.0% both came in under the 15.2% and 36.3% baselines, and only the one-year column beats, drawn from 115 heavily overlapping observation days. “Inside of six months, the historical record gives us no edge,” the analysts wrote.
Coins held longer than a year fell about 356,000 BTC over the 30 days to 11 August, to 11.84 million BTC, or 59.1% of supply. VanEck discloses that it has exposure to Bitcoin, and Sigel said in May that Bitcoin could reach US$1 million (AU$1.41 million) within five years, the firm’s base case, when it traded near US$81,000 (AU$114,210).
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