- Short-term-holder whales’ unrealised profit reached a record US$9.07 billion (AU$12.61 billion) on September 4, according to CryptoQuant, the highest since its tracking began in 2016.
- The reading eased to US$7.51 billion (AU$10.44 billion) by September 5 but still ranked among the five highest on record, all set in the past two weeks.
- CryptoQuant said the cohort is historically the quickest to take profit, leaving a record paper gain that could pressure Bitcoin’s floor if the price turns.
Short-term Bitcoin holders with whale-sized wallets were sitting on a record US$9.07 billion (AU$12.61 billion) in unrealised profit on September 4, according to CryptoQuant, the highest reading since the on-chain analytics firm began tracking the metric in 2016.
The paper gain eased to US$7.51 billion (AU$10.44 billion) by September 5 as Bitcoin slipped, though that print still ranked among the five highest on record, all set in the past two weeks.
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A Cohort Quick to Sell
CryptoQuant, which calls the gauge short-term holder whale unrealized profit and loss, defines the group as large wallets holding coins bought within the last several months. Unrealised profit is a paper figure that turns into cash only if holders sell.
“A cohort sitting on a record paper gain can turn into sellers the moment price wobbles, and STH whales are historically the fastest to take profit when it’s available”, CryptoQuant said in a September 7 note.
Earlier in the cycle, more than 2.8 million BTC held by short-term investors fell underwater after a price drop, and large holders have taken profit into past pullbacks.
CryptoQuant tied the record to Bitcoin’s price floor. “The cost basis structure argues the floor under this rally is real, but the unrealized gain sitting on top of it argues that same floor is now being tested by its own success”, the firm said.
A separate CryptoQuant analysis took the opposite view, arguing that large holders still consider Bitcoin too cheap to sell. It pointed to declining inflows to exchanges and a falling whale ratio, a measure of how much of exchange inflows comes from large wallets, as signs that selling pressure remains muted.
The cost basis CryptoQuant refers to is the average price the cohort paid, which sits below the current market.
Stretches of widespread holder profit have lined up with local price peaks earlier in the cycle. The firm named no support level and forecast no move, presenting the record as a stress point the market has not yet had to absorb.
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